Research reports
Indexable titles and thesis summaries. Interactive reading (charts, FX) lives in the reader app.
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ASML.US: Q2'26 update — EUV monopoly & advanced capacity super-cycle
ASML posted Q2 2026 total net sales of €9.3B, net income €2.9B, and 54.0% GM. System sales €6.6B (EUV €3.8B incl. 1 High-NA; non-EUV €2.8B); Logic 51% / Memory 49%. Q3 guide €11.0–12.0B; FY26 sales raised to €43–45B. ~65 Low-NA EUV shipments planned for 2026; +30% capacity planned for 2027. EUV is irreplaceable for advanced Logic/Memory expansion; China export controls are a tail risk. See TSMC, Micron, NVDA.
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META.US: Ad AI efficiency vs Reality Labs burn
Meta Family of Apps ads remain strong—FY2025 revenue ~$178B (~+22%); AI ranking efficiency offsets Reality Labs losses of ~$16–18B/yr. Pre-earnings draft for the 2026-07-29 print.
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INTC.US Investment Research
Intel operating inflection emerging, but valuation already prices the strategic narrative; Lip-Bu Tan pushes finance-first, demand-anchored ops. Versus AMD’s latest note, CPU industry deep dive, and Lisa Su’s AI-accelerator roadmap, the debate is about system delivery.
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LLY.US: Incretin leader vs capacity & valuation
Eli Lilly leads via tirzepatide; capacity, payors, and multiples constrain.
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WDC.US: Post-spin HDD / AI nearline
Western Digital focuses on HDD after flash spin to SNDK; AI nearline is the swing.
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SNDK.US: SanDisk NAND / AI SSD post-spin
SanDisk NAND pure-play post WDC spin; AI SSD and pricing cycle. See MU.
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DIS.US: Parks cash engine + streaming path
Disney parks anchor profits; DTC profitability and ESPN set the multiple.
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PLTR.US: AIP commercialization at a premium
Palantir US commercial AIP growth with gov base; rich multiple. See AI infra.
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MCD.US: Franchise model & SSS resilience
McDonald's franchise royalties + brand; track SSS, traffic, value menu.
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DDOG.US: Cloud observability + AI ops attach
Datadog rides cloud observability; AI/LLM monitoring is new attach.
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BRK.B: Float, cash, and succession
Berkshire float + cash; watch underwriting, deployment, and Abel-era allocation.
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Squeezing Silicon: Keeping GPUs from Sitting Idle | AI Infra & the Hundred-Billion Market
GPUs buy silicon; returns hinge on utilization. Collectives, HBM, schedulers, power/thermal, and inference batching decide effective output from hundred-billion AI CapEx. Hub NVIDIA; complements AVGO/ANET; constraints TSM/MU; physical layer VRT. See CPU industry.
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CPU industry deep dive · 2026 H2
Agentic AI puts CPUs back at the center of data-center orchestration. Server CPU TAM revised higher toward ~$100–120B by 2030. Watch AMD/Arm globally and Hygon in China. See also AMD stock note and GPU utilization / AI infra deep dive.
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603799.SH Huayou: Ni-Co-Li integration, earnings surge
Huayou Cobalt 2025 revenue ¥81.019B (+32.94%), parent NI ¥6.110B (+47.07%); Q1'26 revenue ~¥25.8B (+44.62%), parent NI ~¥2.497B (+99.45%). A-share ~¥39.9 / mkt ~¥75.6B. Nickel shipments and ternary cathode volume drive growth; metal prices and Indonesia capacity timing set earnings beta. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
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603993.SH / 3993.HK CMOC: Cu-Co volume lifts profits
CMOC 2025 revenue ¥206.684B (−2.98%), parent NI ¥20.339B (+50.30%); Q1'26 revenue ¥66.403B (+44.34%), parent NI ~¥7.760B (+96.65%). A-share ~¥19.5 / mkt ~¥417.6B. Soft revenue vs rising NI reflects Cu/Co mix and cost edge. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
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600362.SH / 0358.HK Jiangxi Copper: smelting giant, Cu beta
Jiangxi Copper 2025 revenue ¥544.623B (+5.42%), parent NI ¥7.130B (+2.41%), adj. NI ¥9.148B (+11.30%). A-share ~¥43.3 / mkt ~¥149.9B. Huge revenue base; profits sensitive to Cu and TC/RCs. Adj. NI > parent NI points to one-offs. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
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601600.SH / 2600.HK Chalco: steady primary Al profits
Chalco 2025 revenue ¥241.125B (+1.69%), parent NI ¥12.674B (+2.25%), pretax profit ~¥25.84B. A-share ~¥9.6 / mkt ~¥164.2B. Al price and power cost drive profits; capacity caps favor steady cash over hypergrowth. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
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601088.SH / 1088.HK China Shenhua: coal-power, high dividend
China Shenhua 2025 revenue ¥294.916B (−13.2%), parent NI ¥52.849B (−5.3%). A-share ~¥45.7 / mkt ~¥991B. Soft top/bottom line from coal prices, but still high earnings and cash; thesis is integrated coal-power + high dividend defense.
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600900.SH CYPC: hydro giant, stable dividend
CYPC 2025 revenue ¥86.242B (+2.07%), parent NI ¥34.503B (+6.17%); generation 309.735 TWh (+3.97%). A-share ~¥29.1 / mkt ~¥711.8B. Cascade hydro offers stable cash and dividend; hydrology is the key swing factor.
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601985.SH CNNC Power (CNNC listed proxy): ops + capacity growth
CNNC Group is not a single A-share listco; this note uses CNNC Nuclear Power (601985.SH) as the investable proxy. 2025 revenue ¥82.075B (+6.22%), parent NI ¥9.304B (+6.00%); nuclear parent NI ~¥8.958B (+18.53%). A-share ~¥9.1 / mkt ~¥186.3B. Thesis: steady nuclear ops + new-unit growth.
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300059.SZ East Money: traffic broker, market beta
East Money 2025 total revenue ¥16.068B (+38.46%), parent NI ¥12.085B (+25.75%); equity+fund brokerage turnover ~¥38.46T. A-share ~¥20.2 / mkt ~¥319.1B. Internet traffic + brokerage/funds is the core; earnings highly tied to market turnover and risk appetite.
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688825.SH CXMT: DRAM localization + memory upcycle
CXMT (ChangXin Memory listco, 688825.SH, STAR IPO 2026-07-27) 2025 revenue ¥61.799B, consolidated NI ¥7.144B, parent NI ¥1.875B (first annual profit); Q1'26 revenue ~¥50.8B with surging NI; H1'26 parent NI guide ¥50–57B. A-share ~¥54 / mkt ~¥3.6T. Thesis: DRAM cycle + localization—valuation already prices a hot upcycle. Cf. Micron MU.
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09880.HK UBTECH: humanoid ramp, still unprofitable
UBTECH (09880.HK) 2025 revenue ¥2.001B (+53.3%), gross margin 37.7% (+9ppt), net loss ~¥0.790B (narrowed from ¥1.160B). Full-size embodied humanoid revenue ~¥0.821B (+2204%), 1,079 units—now the largest segment. HK ~HK$81.6 / mkt ~HK$38.5B. Thesis is embodied-AI delivery, not near-term profits.
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601919.SH / 1919.HK COSCO Holdings: container downcycle + dividend
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 2025 revenue ¥219.504B (−6.14%), parent NI ¥30.868B (−37.13%); ~¥15.4B cash dividend planned (~50% payout). A-share ~¥15.6 / mkt ~¥239B. Freight normalization cuts peak profits; thesis is container beta + shareholder returns.
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0883.HK / 600938.SH CNOOC: low-cost barrels, dividend resilience
CNOOC 2025 revenue ¥398.220B (−5.3%), parent NI ¥122.082B (−11.5%); all-in cost ~$27.9/boe; OCF ~¥209B. HK ~HK$23.8 (A-share ~¥32.3). Softer oil cuts NI, but low cost + dividend remain the moat.
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0700.HK Tencent: games + ads flywheel, AI medium-term
Tencent 2025 revenue ¥751.8B (+14%), IFRS owner earnings ¥224.8B (+16%); Non-IFRS owner earnings ¥259.6B (+17%). Games ~¥241.6B (China +18%, overseas +33%). HK ~HK$475 / mkt ~HK$4.37T. Near-term still ads + games; AI is a medium-term efficiency narrative.
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AVGO.US: Q2'26 update — custom XPU + AI networking dual engine
Broadcom FY Q2 (ended 2026-05-03) revenue $22.2B (+48%), AI semiconductors $10.8B (+143%), adj EBITDA margin 69%. Q3 guide ~$29.4B total and ~$16B AI semi; 2027 AI semi target >$100B. Custom ASIC (XPU) + AI networking thesis is clear with Google / Meta / OpenAI as customers, but concentration and rich valuation matter. Complements NVDA rather than replacing it. See also Oracle and TSMC.
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CRDO.US: FY26 update — AI rack connectivity AEC / SerDes surge
Credo FY2026 revenue $1.335B (+206%), Q4 $437M (+157% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS $1.16, ~68% GM, ~$1.4B cash. Q1 FY27 guide $465–475M. AEC / SerDes is core to AI rack high-speed connectivity, but hyperscaler concentration (Amazon, etc.) is extreme. See AVGO, ANET, NVDA, CLS.
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CLS.US: Q2'26 update — AI server ODM + liquid-cooling racks
Celestica Q2 2026 (ended 2026-06-30) revenue $4.70B (+62%), CCS $3.81B (+84%), adj EPS $2.54, adj op margin 8.2%. FY26 outlook raised to $20.5B revenue and $11.30 adj EPS. AI server ODM / liquid cooling / OpenAI rack thesis is clear, but competition vs SMCI is intensifying. See VRT, NVDA, AVGO, CRDO.
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ANET.US: Q1'26 update — AI data center Ethernet switching leader
Arista Networks posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.709B (+35.1% YoY) with product revenue $2.311B, diluted EPS ~$0.87 and ~47.8% operating margin. FY26 revenue growth was raised to ~27.7% (~$11.5B) and AI fabrics target to $3.5B. Q2 guide ~$2.8B with Non-GAAP OM 46–47%. The “AI DC Ethernet switching + EOS software + XPO liquid-cooled optics” thesis is intact, but valuation looks rich versus AVGO networking. See also CRDO optical interconnect and NVDA AI cluster demand.
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VRT.US: Q2'26 update — AI rack power & liquid cooling infrastructure
Vertiv posted Q2 2026 net sales of $3.274B (+24% YoY) with adjusted OM 22.6% (+410bps), diluted EPS $1.27 (+53%) and adjusted EPS $1.52 (+60%). FY26 guide raised: sales $13.8–14.2B, adjusted EPS $6.65–6.75, adjusted FCF $2.4–2.6B. Q2 revenue was slightly soft versus expectations (timing/supply), driving volatile trading. The “AI rack power + liquid cooling + PurgeRite acquisition” thesis is intact. See CLS cooling chain and SMCI server integration; NVDA GPU clusters anchor demand.
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MU.US: FQ3'26 update — HBM super-cycle & AI memory tight cycle
Micron posted FQ3 FY2026 revenue of $41.46B (+346% YoY), GAAP EPS $24.67 / Non-GAAP EPS $25.11, and operating cash flow $25.39B; data center revenue >$25B. HBM4 already shipped >$1B revenue; FQ4 guide revenue $50.0B ±$1.0B, GM ~86%, Non-GAAP EPS $31.00 ±$1.00. FY26 CapEx ~$27B. The “HBM / DRAM tight cycle for AI GPUs” thesis is intact, but cyclicality and China risk remain core variables. See NVDA demand, TSM / ASML capacity chain, and AMD GPU paths.
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TSM.US: Q2'26 update — advanced foundry monopoly & AI capacity pricing
TSMC posted Q2 2026 revenue of US$40.20B (+33.7% YoY, +12% QoQ), net income NT$706.56B (+77.4%), 67.7% GM and 60.3% OM. Advanced nodes (≤7nm) are 77% of wafer revenue; HPC 66%. Q3 guide US$44.6–45.8B; FY26 revenue growth slightly above +40% USD; CapEx raised to $60–64B. The advanced foundry monopoly for AI GPUs/ASICs is intact, but CoWoS packaging bottlenecks and Taiwan geopolitics remain structural discount factors. See also NVDA, ASML, AMD, INTC.
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SMCI.US: Q4 FY26 preliminary — order explosion & conversion risk
Super Micro issued a preliminary Q4 FY2026 update on 2026-07-21: revenue estimated near the low end of guide ~$11B (prior $11–12.5B), GM estimated 15–17% (well above prior 8.2–8.4% guide). Q4 new orders >$60B with record backlog, but deliveries span future quarters. Market cap ~$19–20B vs a massive order book → conversion and execution risk. AI server / liquid-cooling building blocks thesis is clear, but historical accounting/governance overhang remains. Formal Q4 print on 2026-08-11. See CLS, NVDA, Vertiv, AVGO.
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NVDA.US: Q1 FY2027 update — AI infra leader at a premium
NVIDIA posted Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6B (+85%) and Data Center $75.2B (+92%), with ~75% gross margin and ~$48.55B FCF. Q2 guide $91.0B ±2% excludes China DC compute. Price ~$203; Hold / premium valuation. Versus AMD and the CPU industry narrative, the CUDA full stack remains the moat.
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GOOGL.US: Q2'26 Cloud +82% & Capex ceiling
Alphabet Q2 2026 revenue $119.8B (+24%), Google Cloud $24.8B (+82%); 2026 Capex outlook up to ~$205B. GAAP EPS $9.11 includes ~$99B unrealized equity gains (incl. SpaceX)—do not extrapolate linearly.
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MSFT.US: Azure + Copilot AI monetization
Microsoft is among the few with hyperscale cloud, enterprise AI apps, and office-suite dominance; FY2025 Intelligent Cloud ~$106B (~+22%). Pre-earnings draft for the 2026-07-29 print—watch Azure growth and FY2027 Capex.
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AAPL.US: Services compounding & AI upgrade cycle
Apple's valuation anchor has shifted from unit shipments to installed base × ARPU; FY2025 Services ~$109B (~+12%), gross margin ~46.5%. Pre-earnings draft ahead of the 2026-07-30 print—treat official releases as authoritative.
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AMZN.US: AWS re-acceleration & ads growth
Amazon runs a retail + cloud + ads trilogy; FY2025 AWS ~$108B (~+18%), ads ~$56B (~+22%). Pre-earnings draft ahead of 2026-07-30—core trade-off is heavy Capex versus near-term FCF.
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ORCL.US: FY2026 update — RPO surge vs negative FCF re-pricing
Oracle FY2026 revenue $67.4B (+17%), Cloud $34.0B (+39%); RPO jumped to $638B (+363%) while FY26 FCF was about −$23.7B. Price ~$120 / mkt ~$346B reflects a re-pricing of large backlog vs financing, dilution, and execution. Company guides ~$90B FY27 revenue.
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SPCX.US: SpaceX post-IPO — Starlink cash engine in a controlled company
SpaceX IPO'd ~$135 in Jun 2026; now ~$115 / ~$1.5T (~80x P/S). Starlink 2025 revenue $11.4B with ~$4.4B operating profit and 12M+ users; Falcon ~165 launches. Consolidated net loss ~$5B; Musk ~82% of votes. GOOGL holds SpaceX equity as a cross-asset reference.
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601899.SH / 2899.HK Zijin: earnings up, price down divergence
Zijin Mining 2025 revenue ¥349.079B, parent NI ¥51.777B (+61.55%), ROE 33%; H1'26 guide parent NI ~¥39.1B (+68%). A-share ~¥32.2 / mkt ~¥856B, ~40% off the ~¥44.94 year high—classic cyclical divergence of rising earnings vs falling price. Sector context: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
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000100.SZ TCL Tech: panel-cycle repair and CSOT profit rebound
TCL Technology 2025 revenue ¥184.06B (+11.7%), parent NI ¥4.52B (+188.8%); CSOT (Huaxing) NI ¥8.01B is the profit engine. Q1'26 revenue ¥43.45B, parent NI ¥1.56B (+53.7%). Debt ratio ~64–65%; solar still a drag. Frame as a panel-cycle recovery theme—not a consumer-appliance name.
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AMD.US: Q1'26 update — #2 AI supplier + EPYC dual engine
AMD posted Q1 2026 revenue of $10.3B with Data Center ~$5.78B (+57%), Non-GAAP EPS $1.37 and 55% GM. Q2 guide ~$11.2B ±$0.3B (~+46% YoY). The “#2 AI accelerator + server CPU share” thesis is clear, but training share and ROCm vs CUDA still lag NVDA; valuation looks rich ahead of the 2026-08-04 print. See also INTC and the CPU industry deep dive.
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ACME 2026Q2 Earnings Note
Revenue grew steadily YoY; gross margin softened while operating cash flow improved.
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Nonferrous metals industry deep dive · 2026 H2
Structural bull with divergence: copper/aluminum benefit from tight supply and electrification; lithium/cobalt move toward balance. Focus on self-sufficiency and volume. See copper brief.
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Copper: Supply constraints & grid CapEx map
Mine disruptions and grid/new-energy CapEx support the medium-term copper mid-cycle; near-term watch USD and China property-linked demand. Broader sector: nonferrous metals deep dive.
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Kweichow Moutai: Channel & wholesale price brief
Wholesale price and channel inventory remain the near-term price drivers.