ADP · US
ADP.US: Payroll outsourcing + HCM recurring revenue
ADP payroll + HCM.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/adp-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 266
- Mkt cap
- USD 106.0B
- Revenue
- USD 20.0B
- Pays momentum
- 1.02
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
ADP Defensive payroll/HCM recurring revenue tied to employment/wage inflation; valued as steady cash-flow compounder.
Business
Model: payroll processing + HCM software/services. Flagships: employer payroll; benefits; talent. Edge: compliance scale/switching costs. Strategy: SMB + international digitization.
Value chain
HR services mid; upstream banks/tax rails; downstream employers. Risks: employment shrinkage; cyber; compliance failures.
Valuation
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TTM PE | N/A | 未接入具名行情源；TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数 |
| PB | N/A | 待最新净资产与市值核验 |
| 股息率 | N/A | 待分红公告 / IR |
| 现价语境 | 约 266 | ADP · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准 |
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
High-quality defensive; dividend + buybacks.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ (reconstructed from public disclosures; not audit-line):
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留（常规预期） | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Operations
Volume: pays/employers; price: per-employee fees; cost: ops/compliance.
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (approx) | ~$20B | +mid-single | Recurring heavy |
| Employer retention | High | — | Switching costs |
| Pays growth | Low-single | — | Labor market |
| Margin | Stable/up | — | Operating leverage |
Competition
Peer strengths/weaknesses:
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP (self) | Payroll leader | Mid GM | Scale/compliance | Growth ceiling |
| Paychex | SMB payroll | High | SMB focus | Scale vs ADP |
| Workday | HCM cloud | High GM | Product | Payroll depth |
| Paycom | HCM | High GM | Automation | Scale |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Maria Black | 2023+ | CEO transition in 24m window |
| CFO | CFO office | ongoing | Stable finance function |
| COO / ops | Ops leadership | ongoing | Normal |
Stability: Post-CEO transition continuity—steady transition.
Outlook
Track pays, client retention, bookings, float interest income.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.
Tracking
Check next earnings for:
- Next-quarter revenue & margin vs guide
- OCF vs CapEx / payout
- Competitive share shifts
- Valuation vs historical mid-cycle
- Key policy / supply-chain variables
Confirm: guide hit, share stable, OCF matches earnings.
Disconfirm: guide cut, share loss, leverage stress.
References
- ADP IR / latest 10-Q — SEC EDGAR
- https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=ADP
- Cross-links in body [[article:]] refs
Not investment advice. Missing valuation points are N/A/null; defer to latest filings and named market data.
Comments
Sign in to comment