ADP.US: Payroll outsourcing + HCM recurring revenue

Snapshot

Price

USD 266

Mkt cap

USD 106.0B

Revenue

USD 20.0B

Pays momentum

1.02

Thesis

ADP Defensive payroll/HCM recurring revenue tied to employment/wage inflation; valued as steady cash-flow compounder.

Business

Model: payroll processing + HCM software/services. Flagships: employer payroll; benefits; talent. Edge: compliance scale/switching costs. Strategy: SMB + international digitization.

Value chain

HR services mid; upstream banks/tax rails; downstream employers. Risks: employment shrinkage; cyber; compliance failures.

Valuation

High-quality defensive; dividend + buybacks.

Financial trend (~24 months)

Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ (reconstructed from public disclosures; not audit-line):

Revenue · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Gross margin · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Operations

Volume: pays/employers; price: per-employee fees; cost: ops/compliance.

Key financials

Key financials

Item	Value	YoY	Note
Revenue (approx)	~$20B	+mid-single	Recurring heavy
Employer retention	High	—	Switching costs
Pays growth	Low-single	—	Labor market
Margin	Stable/up	—	Operating leverage

Competition

Peer strengths/weaknesses:

Peer map

Peer map

Company	Share/role	Margin	Strength	Weakness
ADP (self)	Payroll leader	Mid GM	Scale/compliance	Growth ceiling
Paychex	SMB payroll	High	SMB focus	Scale vs ADP
Workday	HCM cloud	High GM	Product	Payroll depth
Paycom	HCM	High GM	Automation	Scale

Management

Management (24m)

Management (24m)

Role	Name	Since	24m change
CEO	Maria Black	2023+	CEO transition in 24m window
CFO	CFO office	ongoing	Stable finance function
COO / ops	Ops leadership	ongoing	Normal

Stability: Post-CEO transition continuity—steady transition.

Outlook

Track pays, client retention, bookings, float interest income.

Scenarios

Risks

Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.