688825.SH · A-shares
688825.SH CXMT: DRAM localization + memory upcycle
CXMT (ChangXin Memory listco, 688825.SH, STAR IPO 2026-07-27) 2025 revenue ¥61.799B, consolidated NI ¥7.144B, parent NI ¥1.875B (first annual profit); Q1'26 revenue ~¥50.8B with surging NI; H1'26 parent NI guide ¥50–57B. A-share ~¥54 / mkt ~¥3.6T. Thesis: DRAM cycle + localization—valuation already prices a hot upcycle. Cf. Micron MU.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/cxmt-688825-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share (~7/31)
- CNY 54
- Market cap (approx)
- CNY 3610.0B
- 2025 parent NI
- CNY 1.9B
- H1'26 NI guide midpoint
- CNY 53.5B
Thesis
CXMT (ChangXin Memory listco, 688825.SH) is China's leading integrated DRAM designer-manufacturer; STAR IPO on 2026-07-27. 2025 revenue ¥61.799B, consolidated NI ¥7.144B, parent NI ¥1.875B (first annual profit); LPDDR/DDR led. Q1'26 revenue ~¥50.8B (+719%); H1'26 parent NI guide ¥50–57B.
A-share ~¥54 / mkt ~¥3.6T—real inflection meets stretched valuation. Global peer: Micron MU.
Business
Model: Integrated DRAM design-manufacture; sell into consumer and server. Earnings tied to DRAM prices and utilization.
Flagships: LPDDR/DDR (volume core); capacity and process roadmap; domestic substitution wins.
Competitiveness: Scarce China DRAM IDM scale; 2025 turnaround and H1'26 guide show real cycle/ops improvement.
Strategy (12–24m): Process catch-up, any HBM/high-bandwidth roadmap, key-customer share. Near-term still DRAM-price led.
Value chain
Position: midstream memory IDM — upstream tools/materials; downstream OEMs/module houses.
Supply-chain risks: Advanced tool/material export controls; DRAM price and customer concentration swings.
Price & valuation
Post-IPO pricing discounts a DRAM upcycle plus localization. Cap sits in global-memory conversation while share/tech still lag the Big 3; any DRAM price fade amplifies drawdowns.
Financial trend (~24 months)
~8Q scaffold with YoY/QoQ. Data limits: post-STAR IPO full quarterly detail is thin—series anchored to annual/guide figures for trend, not audited splits. Q1'26 revenue jump needs company context.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin (est.) · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue 2025 | ¥61.799B | ~+155% | DRAM ramp |
| Consol. NI 2025 | ¥7.144B | turnaround | 2024: −¥9.05B |
| Parent NI 2025 | ¥1.875B | turnaround | Large NCI share |
| Q1'26 revenue | ~¥50.8B | +719% | Cycle acceleration |
| H1'26 parent NI guide | ¥50–57B | — | IPO pricing anchor |
Competition
Global peers: Samsung, SK hynix, Micron.
Strengths: Domestic capacity and policy support; high cyclical operating leverage.
Weaknesses: Process/HBM gap; rich valuation; parent vs consol. NI gap from NCI.
Peer comparison
| Company | Share / position | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 长鑫科技 688825 | 国内 DRAM 一体龙头 | 周期上行中抬升 | 国产替代+产能 | 技术/份额落后三巨头；估值高 |
| 美光 MU | 全球 DRAM 三巨头 | 周期领先 | 先进制程与客户 | 地缘与对华限制 |
| SK 海力士 | 全球三巨头 | HBM 领先 | HBM/先进DRAM | 资本开支周期 |
| 三星电子 | 全球三巨头 | 规模最大 | 产能与垂直整合 | 存储价格周期 |
Management
Per prospectus/filings; key 24m event is Jul 2026 STAR IPO.
Stability call: Transition — post-IPO governance/disclosure cadence; watch lockups and appointments.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 | 见招股书/年报 | 上市前后披露 | 科创板 IPO（2026-07）；核心团队以招股披露为准 |
| 总经理/CEO | 见招股书 | 披露任职 | 上市窗口期，关注后续高管公告 |
| 财务负责人 | 见招股书 | 披露任职 | 期间以招股及上市后公告为准 |
| 技术负责人 | 见招股书 | 披露任职 | 制程路线与产能相关 |
Outlook
Near term: DRAM spot/contract prices, utilization, process roadmap, and key-customer ramps. FY26 earnings highly price-dependent.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Firm DRAM; share gains; H1 guide high end | Rich multiple partly earned |
| Base | High prices chop; NI strong but slowing | Volatile hold / trade |
| Bear | Sharp memory fade; lockup/sentiment unwind | NI + multiple crush |