FLY · US
FLY.US: Responsive launch + lunar landing capability
Firefly launch + lunar missions.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/fly-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 50
- Mkt cap
- USD 3.5B
- Revenue
- USD 160.0M
- Revenue YoY acceleration
- 1.63
Thesis
Firefly Aerospace 2025-IPO launch/lunar company: Alpha-class launch + Blue Ghost lunar success lift narrative and revenue jump, but short history and deeply negative OCF—execution and funding are the core tensions.
Business
Model: launch, spacecraft, lunar landers. Flagships: Alpha (+ follow-ons); Blue Ghost; responsive launch. Edge: successful soft lunar landing; responsive launch pitch. Strategy: raise cadence; grow gov/commercial lunar & orbital missions.
Value chain
Mid-stack launch/lunar; upstream engines/structures/range; downstream NASA CLPS, defense, commercial payloads. Risks: engine/structure capacity; licenses/slots; mission-failure reputation.
Valuation
Narrative growth stock; extremely sensitive to mission outcomes and scaling revenue off a small base.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ (reconstructed from public disclosures; not audit-line):
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Volume: launches/landers; price: mission contracts; cost: R&D, test, launch ops. Deeply negative OCF.
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 rev (approx) | ~$160M | +163% vs FY24 | Sharp acceleration |
| FY2024 rev | ~$61M | — | Small base |
| OCF | Deeply negative | — | Investment phase |
| IPO | 2025-08 | — | Short public history |
Competition
Peer strengths/weaknesses:
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firefly (self) | Launch+lunar | Neg | Lunar success story | Scale/cash burn |
| Rocket Lab | Launch+systems | Neg OM | Higher cadence/public track | Neutron focus |
| Intuitive Machines | Lunar CLPS | Neg | CLPS heritage | Landings risk |
| SpaceX | Heavy launch | Scale | Dominant cadence | Different league |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Company leadership | post-IPO | Monitor disclosures |
| CFO | Finance leadership | post-IPO | Monitor disclosures |
| Mission ops | Launch/lunar leads | ongoing | Execution critical |
Stability: Transition: newly public—verify exec changes against latest proxies.
Outlook
Track launch count, follow-on lunar contracts, cash runway, dilution.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.