KMI.US: Record Q2 midstream cash flows + LNG-linked growth

Market snapshot

Price (~8/21)

USD 27.45

Market cap

USD 61.2B

H1'26 NI (attrib.)

USD 1.8B

H1'26 revenue

USD 9.3B

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Kinder Morgan (KMI) is the largest US midstream operator by pipeline miles (~83k). Q2'26 revenue $4.48B (+11% YoY), attributable NI $867M (+21%), Adj. EBITDA $2.20B (+12%) — all record Q2 prints. H1'26 NI $1.84B, OCF $3.45B; dividend raised to $0.2975/qtr ($1.19 annualized, +2%).

Thesis: Hold / income + modest growth. Fee-based natural-gas transport for LNG exports and power demand drives contracted EBITDA; yield ~4.3% at ~$27.45. Peers: WMB, EPD, ET.

Business

Model: Own/operate interstate pipelines, terminals, and CO₂ networks — earn fee-based transport/storage margins plus commodity-sensitive CO₂ and terminal volumes.

Flagships: (1) Natural Gas Pipelines (~55% EBITDA) — Permian/Gulf Coast/LNG-linked gas; (2) Products Pipelines (~20%) — refined products to West Coast; (3) Terminals + CO₂ (~25%) — storage/export and enhanced oil recovery.

Competitiveness: Unmatched US gas network scale; long-dated contracts; investment-grade balance sheet with improving leverage.

Strategy (12–24m): Complete Monument acquisition integration; LNG/power-linked expansions; dividend growth while targeting 3.6x net debt/Adj. EBITDA.

Entity / boundary: NYSE KMI — consolidated midstream; no material disposals in 24m.

{

Strategy pillars

Strategy pillars

Pillar	Content
Fee-based growth	Expand natural-gas transport for LNG exports and power demand; backlog of contracted projects
Capital discipline	Target net debt/Adj. EBITDA ~3.6x by YE2026; prioritize high-return expansions over M&A
Shareholder returns	$1.19/sh annual dividend (+2% YoY); excess FCF to debt paydown and selective growth capex

}

Value chain

Position: Midstream — between upstream producers and downstream LDCs, refiners, exporters.

Upstream: E&P shippers (Permian, Haynesville, Marcellus). Downstream: utilities, refiners, LNG export terminals, Mexico exports.

Customer concentration: No single shipper >10% disclosed; diversified producer/LDC base on interstate pipes.

{

Customer structure

Customer structure

Item	Value	Note
Customer mix	Producers, LDCs, refiners, exporters	Fee-based transport & storage
Top customer concentration	Not disclosed as >10%	Diversified shipper base on interstate pipes
Geography	US-focused (~83k miles pipe)	Gulf Coast / Permian / Northeast hubs

}

Supply-chain risks: (1) Pipeline construction delays / cost inflation; (2) Producer volume declines in key basins — echoed in Risks.

Corporate events

Material 24–36m actions:

{

Corporate events

Corporate events

Date	Phase	Event	Meaning
2025-2026	M&A	Monument pipeline acquisition	Expands Permian gas takeaway; above-budget capex but EBITDA-accretive
2026-07	Capital return	Q2 dividend raised to $0.2975/sh	2% YoY increase; $1.19 annualized
2026-H1	Ops	Record Q1/Q2 EBITDA & NI	>5% above 2026 budget on Adj. EBITDA through H1

}

Valuation

Price ~$27.45 / mkt ~$61B (2026-08-21). Market prices LNG-linked gas growth + ~4.3% yield vs midstream execution risk.

{

Valuation snapshot

Valuation snapshot

Metric	Value	Note
P/E (TTM approx.)	~17x	H1 EPS $0.82 annualized vs ~$27.45
P/B	~1.5x	Asset-heavy pipeline franchise
Dividend yield	~4.3%	$1.19/sh annualized
EV/EBITDA (approx.)	~12x	Midstream peer median
Price read (~8/21)	~$27.45	Market prices LNG/power-linked gas growth + yield

}

~3 years PE, PB, dividend yield, trailing 12m return:

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Valuation & returns · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

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Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Financial trend (~24 months)

Eight-quarter revenue and Adj. EBITDA margin with YoY and QoQ:

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Revenue · last 8 quarters

Interactive chart available in the reader.

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Adj. EBITDA margin · last 8 quarters

Interactive chart available in the reader.

}

Financial health (§A.7)

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Financial health (§A.7)

Financial health (§A.7)

Item	Value	Note
OCF (H1'26)	$3.45B	Covers dividends + growth capex
Net debt / Adj. EBITDA	~3.8x → 3.6x target	Improving vs 3.8x budget
Liquidity	Revolver + stable IG profile	Investment-grade midstream
Auditor / going concern	Unqualified; none noted	Per 10-Q filings

}

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Operations

Q2'26 volumes benefited from Permian gas growth and LNG export pull. All segments contributed to record EBITDA. 2026 budget: NI ~$3.1B, Adj. EBITDA ~$8.6B — tracking >5% favorable on EBITDA through H1.

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Key financials / segments

Key financials / segments

Item	Value	YoY	Note
Q2'26 revenue	$4.48B	+11%	Record Q2
Q2'26 NI (attrib.)	$867M	+21%	Record Q2 NI
Q2'26 Adj. EBITDA	$2.20B	+12%	Record Q2 EBITDA
Natural Gas Pipelines	~55% EBITDA	—	Core segment
Products Pipelines	~20% EBITDA	—	Refined products
Terminals / CO₂	~25% EBITDA	—	Storage + EOR

}

Competition

Peers: WMB (gas gathering/transmission), EPD (NGL/export), ET (diversified midstream).

Strengths: Scale, fee-based cash flows, dividend growth. Weaknesses: Commodity beta on CO₂; large capex pipeline; leverage vs pure-play gatherers.

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Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Peer comparison

Peer comparison

Company	Position	Margin	Strength	Weakness
Kinder Morgan (self)	US midstream leader	Adj. EBITDA ~49%	Scale + fee-based cash flows	Commodity beta on CO₂/terminals
Williams (WMB)	Gas gathering/transmission	High EBITDA margin	Haynesville/Appalachia gas	Less diversified vs KMI
Enterprise (EPD)	NGL/export hub	Strong yield	NGL fractionation + export	MLP structure complexity
Energy Transfer (ET)	Large diversified midstream	Scale EBITDA	Permian + export optionality	Leverage / integration risk

}

Management

{

Key management (24m)

Key management (24m)

Role	Name	Since	24m change
CEO	Kim Dang	2023-10	No change
CFO	David Michels	2020-08	No change
Exec. Chair	Richard Kinder	2015-06	No change

}

24m changes: Kim Dang CEO since Oct 2023; no further C-suite turnover disclosed.

Stability: Stable — long-tenured finance bench; Richard Kinder as executive chair.

Outlook

Near-term: H2 EBITDA vs budget, Monument integration, LNG export timeline, re-contracting spreads. Gas/LNG demand from power and exports remains the macro tailwind.

Scenarios

Risks

{

Risks (severity)

Risks (severity)

Risk	Level	Note
Natural-gas price / volume downturn	中	Affects re-contracting and CO₂
Regulatory / rate-case pressure	中	FERC interstate pipeline oversight
Project execution / cost overrun	中	Monument and expansion capex
Leverage / rising rates	中	Large debt stack; refinancing risk
Energy-transition / demand shift	低	Long-dated but real for CO₂/EOR

}

{

}

Tracking list

1. Quarterly Adj. EBITDA vs $8.6B budget run-rate
2. Net debt/Adj. EBITDA toward 3.6x YE2026
3. Monument project spend vs plan
4. Permian / LNG-linked volume trends
5. Dividend declaration trajectory ($1.19/sh guide)

Confirm: EBITDA beat continues, leverage improves, dividend grows.
Falsify: Gas volume collapse, capex blow-out, leverage stalls >4x.

References

1. KMI Q2 2026 earnings release (2026-07-22) — https://ir.kindermorgan.com/news/news-details/2026/Kinder-Morgan-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
2. KMI Form 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001506307
3. Q2 2026 earnings call transcript — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/07/24/kinder-morgan-kmi-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

Not investment advice. Valuation series are illustrative public-market estimates.