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MSFT · US

MSFT.US: FY26 Q4 formal print — Azure +43% & CapEx optics

Microsoft FY26 Q4: revenue $90.0B (+18%), Azure +43%, Microsoft Cloud $59.3B (+27%), RPO $678B (+84%). FY26 revenue $331.8B, OI $155.2B, diluted EPS $17.95. CY2026 CapEx ~$175B. See Amazon, NVDA.

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Latest print snapshot

Q4 revenue
USD 90.0B
Azure growth
0
FY26 revenue
USD 331.8B
FY26 diluted EPS
USD 17.95
As of 2026-09-25

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Microsoft combines Azure hyperscale cloud, Copilot enterprise AI, and M365 dominance, plus a deep OpenAI tie. The 2026-07-29 formal Q4/FY26 print: quarterly revenue $90.0B (+18%), operating income $40.6B (+18%), GAAP diluted EPS $4.81; FY revenue $331.8B (+18%), OI $155.2B (+21%), NI $133.7B, diluted EPS $17.95. Azure and other cloud +43%; Microsoft Cloud $59.3B (+27%); Commercial RPO $678B (+84%). Azure annual revenue surpassed $100B for the first time; M365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million.

Tension: demand still exceeds supply, but CY2026 CapEx ~$175B (reclassified from ~$190B; investment intent unchanged) and Q1 FY27 CapEx >$50B keep near-term FCF under pressure.

Business

Model: enterprise subscriptions + Azure + personal computing; Copilot lifts ARPU.

Flagships: Intelligent Cloud / Azure (Q4 $39.3B, +32%; Azure +43%); Productivity ($37.8B, +14%); More Personal Computing ($12.9B, −4%).

Competitiveness: M365 seat distribution for Copilot; OpenAI tie + Azure enterprise relationships.

Strategy: >30M Copilot paid seats; keep adding capacity; FY27 useful-life extension (15→25 years) changes lease classification and CapEx optics.

Strategy

Strategy
Pillar / phaseDetail
0–12m: Azure 供给与 AI 变现KPI: Azure 增速 · Copilot 付费席位 · Commercial RPO
12–24m: 数据中心寿命/租赁口径KPI: CapEx 会计分类 · FCF 轨迹
生态: OpenAI + M365 分发KPI: Copilot ARR/席位 · OpenAI 投资公允价值
As of 2026-09-25

Value chain

Mid/downstream enterprise software and cloud. Upstream: GPUs/power/models. Downstream: enterprises and developers. Supply risks: AI DC power/accelerators; OpenAI relationship and mark-to-market noise.

Customers

Customers
CustomerConcentration/roleNote
企业订阅（M365 / Dynamics）高度分散席位底座支撑 Copilot
超大云 / AI 合约RPO 可见度高Commercial RPO $678B
最大客户占比N/A（本 release 未具名）企业云通常低于消费硬件集中度
As of 2026-09-25

Corporate events

Material events over ~24–36m:

Corporate events

Corporate events
DatePhaseEventMeaning
2025–2026战略Copilot 规模化与 Azure AI 供给扩张云 AI 主线
2026-07-29财报FY26 Q4/全年正式打印：Azure +43%，FY 营收 $331.8B验证增速
2026会计数据中心使用寿命调整影响 CapEx/租赁口径解读 CY CapEx ~$175B
As of 2026-09-25

Valuation

Valuation snapshot

Valuation snapshot
MetricValueNote
市值（约）~$2.9T股价随市；约 2026-08 中旬量级
TTM P/E（示意）约 32–36xFY26 稀释 EPS $17.95
Forward P/E（示意）约 28–32x云增速溢价仍在
P/B（示意）约 12–13x轻资产软件/云
盈利收益率约 3%1/PE
股息率约 0.7%分红+回购并重
As of 2026-09-25

Valuation & returns · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Illustrative market reads (TTM PE/PB; div yield; trailing 12m price return approx.) · As of 2026-09-25

Price read (~Aug 2026): markets price “can Azure ~45% CC guide land + is CapEx accounting masking real investment intensity.”

Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Quarterly close reconstruction (illustrative, split-adjusted approx.) · As of 2026-09-25

Financial trend (~24 months)

Revenue · last 8 quarters

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Microsoft filings; some recent quarters reconstructed from disclosed series (incl. YoY/QoQ) · As of 2026-09-25

Gross margin · last 8 quarters

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Microsoft filings; some recent quarters reconstructed from disclosed series (incl. YoY/QoQ) · As of 2026-09-25

Financial health

Financial health

Financial health
ItemValueNote
财务健康总评健康高利润率；CapEx 压制近端 FCF
FY26 营收$331.8B+18% YoY
FY26 经营利润$155.2B+21%
FY26 净利润$133.7B稀释 EPS $17.95
CY2026 CapEx 预期约 $175B自 ~$190B 下调，主因租赁重分类非投资收缩
Q1 FY27 CapEx 指引>$50B含使用寿命变更影响
Commercial RPO$678B+84% YoY
审计 / 持续经营大型美股常规无保留预期以最新 10-K/10-Q 为准
As of 2026-09-25

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Reconstructed from public filings (illustrative; attributable NI) · As of 2026-09-25

Operations

Q4: $90.0B revenue; $40.6B OI; GAAP NI $35.8B / EPS $4.81 (non-GAAP $35.3B / $4.74 ex-OpenAI). Discrete items (incl. ~$3.2B Anthropic-related gain) benefited diluted EPS by ~$0.27. Microsoft Cloud $59.3B (+27%); Azure +43%; Commercial RPO $678B (+84%).

FY26: $331.8B revenue (+18%); $155.2B OI (+21%); $133.7B NI; $17.95 diluted EPS.

Outlook: Azure ~45% CC in Q1; CY2026 CapEx ~$175B; Q1 CapEx >$50B.

Q4 FY26 segments

Q4 FY26 segments
SegmentRevenue mixWatchpoint
Productivity & Business$37.8B Q4 / +14%M365 Commercial cloud +14% reported；Consumer cloud +24%
Intelligent Cloud$39.3B Q4 / +32%Azure and other cloud +43%；Microsoft Cloud $59.3B (+27%)
More Personal Computing$12.9B Q4 / −4%Windows OEM −7%；Xbox −10%
As of 2026-09-25

Competition

Cloud vs AWS/GCP; productivity vs Workspace; AI apps vs Copilot peers. Strength: seat distribution + OpenAI. Weakness: premium sensitive to growth; CapEx presses FCF.

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer comparison

Peer comparison
CompanyPosition / shareGMStrengthWeakness
Microsoft (MSFT)Azure #2 / M365~69%Seats + Copilot + OpenAI tiePremium multiple vs growth; Capex
Amazon (AMZN)AWS #1~50%Cloud share leadWeaker office suite ARPU lever
Alphabet (GOOGL)GCP #3 / Workspace~58%+Search cash + Cloud accelerationSmaller enterprise seat lock-in
Oracle (ORCL)DB + OCI challenger~70%AI capacity RPO spikeNegative FCF / financing risk
As of 2026-09-25

Management

Satya Nadella (Chair & CEO), Amy Hood (CFO). No major disclosed C-suite change in 24m—stable.

Key management (24m)

Key management (24m)
RoleNameSince24m change
Chair & CEOSatya Nadella2014No change
CFOAmy Hood2013No material disclosed change
Vice Chair / PresidentBrad Smithlong-tenuredNo material disclosed change
As of 2026-09-25

Outlook

Azure Q1 ~45% CC; CapEx CY2026 ~$175B / Q1 >$50B; Copilot >30M seats; MPC still soft but not the valuation core.

Scenarios

Scenario Conditions Implication
Bull Azure holds ~40%+; Copilot accelerates Premium sustained
Base High-teens/20s+ cloud; CapEx high but ROI visible Core hold
Bear Azure slows sharply or CapEx ROI fails Multiple compression

Risks

Risks

Risks
RiskSeverityMitigation
Azure 增速不及指引高估值对增速敏感
CapEx / FCF 承压高Q1 CapEx >$50B 叙事
OpenAI 关系与投资波动中公允价值扰动
反垄断 / 监管中云与生产力捆绑审查
MPC 持续疲软低–中Windows/Gaming
As of 2026-09-25
Risk Level
Azure miss vs guide High
CapEx / FCF pressure High
OpenAI relationship / investment volatility Medium
Antitrust / regulation Medium
MPC weakness Low–Medium

Tracking

  1. Azure CC growth vs ~45% guide
  2. Commercial RPO and Microsoft Cloud growth
  3. CapEx vs ~$175B / Q1 >$50B and short-lived asset mix
  4. Copilot paid seats and M365 Commercial cloud
  5. OpenAI/Anthropic mark-to-market noise in GAAP EPS

Confirm: Azure delivery + Copilot penetration. Falsify: cloud deceleration or CapEx ROI failure.

References

  1. Microsoft Q4 FY26 results (2026-07-29) — https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/07/29/microsoft-cloud-and-ai-strength-fuels-fourth-quarter-results-4/
  2. Microsoft IR — https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor
  3. FY26 Q4 call / CapEx outlook — https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4
  4. See Amazon · Alphabet · NVIDIA

Not investment advice.

Disclaimer: For research information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

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