PANW · US
PANW.US: FY26 Q4 $3.41B (+34%) — NGS ARR $9.10B & FY27 guide
Palo Alto Q4 FY26 revenue $3.41B (+34%), NGS ARR $9.10B (+63%), RPO $21.2B; GAAP NI −$282M, non-GAAP NI $853M. FY26 revenue $11.48B (+24%). FY27 guide $14.1–14.2B / NGS ARR $11.075–11.175B.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/panw-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 330
- Mkt cap
- USD 270.0B
- Revenue
- USD 11.5B
- NGS ARR (Q4)
- USD 9.1B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Palo Alto Networks Q4 FY26 revenue $3.41B (+34%), NGS ARR $9.10B (+63% incl. CyberArk/Chronosphere), RPO $21.2B (+34%). GAAP NI −$282M (deal/financing items), non-GAAP NI $853M, OCF $1.4B. FY26 revenue $11.48B (+24%). FY27 guide $14.1–14.2B / NGS ARR $11.075–11.175B (+22–23%) — headline ARR will anniversary lower. Platform-security core; watch organic NGS and integration, not the one-time consolidation step-up.
It remains the largest cybersecurity platform vendor: a next-gen firewall franchise migrating customers from boxes to Prisma / Cortex subscriptions. Since 2026 the story is unified human/machine/agent identity plus AI runtime security—the ~$25B CyberArk close in February, Protect AI (Prisma AIRS), and Chronosphere are gap-fillers, not multiple-expansion toys. Bull: Prisma AIRS customers ~300 vs ~100, so AI security is shipping. Bear: Q2 cut FY EPS for deal dilution; Idira (ex-CyberArk) and Cortex integration, plus organic vs reported growth, will be unpacked every quarter.
Business
Model: product (hardware NGFW) + subscriptions + support. Valuation is increasingly a function of next-generation security (NGS) ARR; hardware is the attach and renewal anchor.
Flagships:
- Strata / NGFW — default enterprise control point; channel and brand moat.
- Prisma Cloud + Prisma AIRS — cloud and AI-app runtime; AIRS from Protect AI (closed Jul 2025).
- Cortex XSIAM + Idira (ex-CyberArk) — SOC plus privileged / machine / agent identity. CyberArk closed 11 Feb 2026; rebranded Idira around May 2026.
Edge: channel coverage and platform bundling. Gap: slow integration reads as “bought growth”; organic NGS (~28%) is the quality print.
Strategy (12–24m): one control plane from packet to agent. Q4 FY26 printed 1 Sep 2026: revenue $3.41B (+34%), RPO $21.2B. Entity: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (Nasdaq: PANW). CyberArk is delisted—do not price it as a stub.
Value chain
Position: security software + some network hardware, mid-stack enterprise IT. Upstream: silicon, cloud, intel, acquired teams; downstream: CISOs, channel, government and large enterprise.
| Direction | Parties | Leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | Silicon/cloud, Protect AI / Chronosphere / CyberArk talent | Module supply and retention |
| Downstream | CISOs, channel | High switching cost, long budget cycles |
Concentration: no dangerous single-customer % disclosed. USD prepaid subscriptions dominate.
Supply risks: hardware lead times, cloud residency/export, intel freshness. Culture/product overlap after the identity deal is the nearer execution risk (#risks).
Newsflow · last 6 months
Window 1 Feb 2026 – 1 Sep 2026. February was M&A shock + guide cut; June Q3 used reported NGS and AIRS logos to reset the tape; August Black Hat lifted the cohort. Q4 printed 1 Sep; next check is organic NGS vs the FY27 $14.1–14.2B guide.
Last 6 months — events / news
| Date | Type | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 市场 | Black Hat 期间与 CRWD 等网安股走强 | AI 安全主题 Beta；9-01 Q4 才是下一基本面锚 |
| 2026-06-02 | 财报 | FY26 Q3（截至 04-30）：收入 $30 亿 +31%（含 CyberArk+Chronosphere $3.88 亿）；NGS ARR $81.3 亿 +60%（有机约 $65 亿 +28%）；Prisma AIRS 客户约 300；Chronosphere ARR >$3 亿；全年收入指引 $114.15–114.25 亿；Q4 预定 2026-09-01 | 用有机 NGS 把 2 月并购冲击后的叙事拉回；须继续拆并表 |
| 2026-05 | 产品 | CyberArk 产品线品牌切换为 Idira（人机/智能体身份） | 整合进入品牌层；跟踪身份留存与交叉销售 |
| 2026-02-24 | 市场 | Q2 因并购摊薄下调全年 EPS 后，股价触及 52 周低点约 $139.57 | 近 6 个月最明确的负面定价：市场先罚摊薄 |
| 2026-02-11 | 并购 | CyberArk 约 $250 亿交易交割；身份能力并入平台（其后退市） | 平台缺口补上，同时打开 EPS/整合风险 |
Valuation
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TTM PE | N/A | 未接入具名行情源；TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数 |
| PB | N/A | 待最新净资产与市值核验 |
| 股息率 | N/A | 待分红公告 / IR |
| 现价语境 | 约 330 | PANW · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准 |
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Priced as platform cyber leader + AI-security option. FY26 revenue printed $11.48B (+24%); Q4 $3.41B (+34%), NGS ARR $9.10B, RPO $21.2B. FY27 guide $14.1–14.2B / NGS ARR $11.075–11.175B. Dilution drove a February 52-week low; the Q4 print resets the tape. Split organic vs reported NGS. GAAP TTM PE is N/A after the quarterly loss. KPI prices are approximate.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
8Q charts are reconstructed (not audit-line). Near-term anchor: FY26 Q3 (ended 30 Apr 2026).
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留（常规预期） | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Financial health (§A.7)
OCF and deferred revenue have long been positive. After equity+cash mega-deals, dilution and integration hit near-term EPS (already shown in Q2). Solvency is not the issue; post-deal margin path is. No going-concern emphasis in the latest 10-K/10-Q.
Operations
Volume: firewalls / cloud workloads / identity accounts. Price: platform ASP and multi-year contracts. Cost: S&M plus three-deal synergy. Watch Prisma AIRS ~300 customers and Chronosphere ARR >$300M.
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 营收 | $3.41B | +34% | FY26 $11.48B / +24% |
| NGS ARR | $9.10B | +63% | 含并购；看有机 |
| RPO | $21.2B | +34% | cRPO $9.3B |
| GAAP 净利 | −$282M | 亏损 | 并购/融资项 |
| non-GAAP 净利 | $853M | EPS $1.02 | 公司口径 |
| FY27 营收指引 | $14.1–14.2B | +23–24% | NGS ARR $11.075–11.175B |
Competition
Endpoint vs CrowdStrike; cloud/SSE vs Zscaler and Netskope; identity vs Microsoft/Okta remnants; firewall vs Fortinet/Check Point. Breadth is both moat and complexity. Pure-play AI-security startups lose on channel; if organic growth looks like Fortinet, the theme premium fades.
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palo Alto (self) | Platform security | ~74% GM | Install base | M&A integration |
| CrowdStrike | Endpoint/XDR | High GM | Cloud-native | Firewall gap |
| Fortinet | Broad security | Mid-high | Cost leader | Brand vs PANW |
| Zscaler | SSE/zero trust | High GM | Cloud proxy | Narrower stack |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Nikesh Arora | 2018 | No material change |
| CFO | Dipak Golechha | 2021+ | Stable |
| CTO / Pres products | Lee Klarich | long-tenured | No material change |
Stability: steady. Nikesh Arora long-tenured; platform strategy continuous; no control change in 24 months. Org complexity is an execution variable, not a governance crisis.
Outlook
Three tells: organic NGS (~28%), Idira retention/cross-sell, Prisma AIRS customer/ARR. Q4 on 2026-09-01. If organic holds and AIRS keeps adding logos, dilution can be digested; if reported growth is only consolidation and organic slips under 20%, the stock re-rates as “legacy cyber.”
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Organic NGS stays high-20s; AIRS/identity cross-sell visible | Platform + AI option both pay |
| Base | Reported growth looks strong; organic ~25–28%; integration on plan | Hold, unpack the print |
| Bear | Organic stalls, or identity/SOC integration fails and EPS is cut again | Multiple back to hardware+sub |
Risks
- High: CyberArk/Idira and Chronosphere integration misses; organic masked by consolidation.
- High: IT-budget cycle and failed platform displacement.
- Medium: deal dilution hitting EPS guides (Feb 2026 already).
- Medium: share fight with CRWD/Zscaler in cloud and XDR.
- Low: hardware supply (no longer the ARR driver).
Tracking
- Organic vs reported NGS ARR and FY revenue guide
- Prisma AIRS customers / ARR (~300 logos at Q3)
- Idira identity ARR, churn, cross-sell
- 2026-09-01 Q4 and early FY27
- Cohort beta around Black Hat / major-vuln cycles
References
Issuer / key sources:
- https://investors.paloaltonetworks.com/
- Q3 FY26 (2026-06-02): https://www.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026/palo-alto-networks-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial-results
- CyberArk close: company Feb 2026 8-K
- Black Hat tape (2026-08-10): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/crowdstrike-palo-alto-stock-black-hat.html
- https://www.sec.gov/edgar
Not investment advice; defer to latest filings. News window through 2026-08-28. Q4 due 2026-09-01.
- Palo Alto Networks Q4/FY26 (2026-09-01) — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/palo-alto-networks-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2026-financial-results-302866744.html
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