RKLB · US
RKLB.US: Small/medium launch + end-to-end space systems
Rocket Lab launch + space systems.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/rklb-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 45
- Mkt cap
- USD 22.0B
- Revenue
- USD 602.0M
- Backlog (approx)
- USD 1.85B
Thesis
Rocket Lab One of few public pure-plays that both launches and builds spacecraft: Electron/HASTE cadence up, Space Systems + gov awards lift backlog; Neutron is the next valuation anchor—but OCF still negative with heavy capex/R&D.
Business
Model: launch services + spacecraft/components. Flagships: Electron; HASTE; Photon/spacecraft & components; Neutron (in development). Edge: cadence + vertical integration; sell launch+sat. Strategy: end-to-end space company; national-security constellation manufacturing.
Value chain
Mid-stack launch + sat manufacturing; upstream propellant/composites/avionics/range access; downstream gov + constellation operators. Risks: range/licensing; critical components; Neutron slips.
Valuation
High-growth space multiple; extremely sensitive to cadence, backlog conversion, Neutron timeline; cash-burn P/S swings.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ (reconstructed from public disclosures; not audit-line):
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Volume: launches + spacecraft deliveries; price: launch ASP / sat contracts; cost: ops, manufacturing, Neutron capex. OCF still negative.
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 rev (approx) | ~$602M | +38% | Record year |
| Backlog | ~$1.85B | +73% | SDA + launch pipeline |
| OCF | Negative | — | Still investing/burning |
| Neutron | In development | — | Key medium-lift catalyst |
Competition
Peer strengths/weaknesses:
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab (self) | Launch+systems | Low/neg OM | Public pure-play cadence | Cash burn / Neutron risk |
| Firefly | Launch+lunar | Neg | Responsive launch / lunar | Scale vs RKLB |
| SpaceX | Heavy launch+Starlink | Scale | Reuse + Starlink cash | Not a peer-size comparable |
| Lockheed (space) | Defense space | High | Gov franchise | Not pure-play |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO / Founder | Peter Beck | Founding | No material change |
| CFO | Adam Spice | long-tenured | Stable |
| Space Systems | Leadership team | scaling | Org grows with backlog |
Stability: Steady: founder-CEO continuity; org scaling with backlog.
Outlook
Track annual launch count, SDA execution, Neutron first flight, OCF inflection.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.