SMCI · US
SMCI.US: Q4/FY26 formal print — $65–72B guide & conversion risk
Super Micro formal Q4/FY26 (2026-08-11): Q4 net sales $11.1B, GAAP GM 17.5%, diluted EPS $1.62; FY26 sales $39.1B, NI $2.2B. Q1 FY27 guide $14.5–15.5B; FY27 $65–72B; >$60B new orders and record backlog. See CLS, NVDA, Vertiv.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/smci-us-research#thesis
Q4 / FY26 formal snapshot
- Q4 net sales
- USD 11.1B
- Q4 GAAP GM
- 0.2
- FY26 net sales
- USD 39.1B
- FY27 revenue guide
- $65–72B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Near-term guidance
- Q1 FY27 revenue
- $14.5–15.5B
- Q1 GAAP diluted EPS
- $0.89–0.98
- FY27 revenue
- $65–72B
- New orders (mgmt)
- USD 60.0B
Thesis
Super Micro (SMCI) sits in the assembly and system integration layer of the AI server chain—integrating NVIDIA GPUs, networking, and liquid-cooling into deliverable AI racks. The 2026-08-11 formal Q4/FY26 print confirms:
- Scale delivered — Q4 net sales $11.1B (vs Q3 $10.2B; vs Q4'25 $5.8B); FY26 $39.1B (vs FY25 $22.0B);
- Margin step-up — Q4 GAAP GM 17.5% (vs Q3 9.9% / Q4'25 9.5%); diluted EPS $1.62 (Non-GAAP $1.70); FY26 NI $2.2B / $3.26 diluted;
- Aggressive guides — Q1 FY27 revenue $14.5–15.5B; FY27 $65–72B; management cites >$60B new orders over the past year and a record backlog into FY27.
Dual-sided logic: order/guide strength validates AI rack demand; FY26 full-year OCF −$6.8B, inventory spike, an ongoing export-control review, and historical governance overhang remain discount sources. Versus Celestica (CLS): SMCI wins on speed, customization, and DLC/DCBBS; CLS wins on large-scale ODM and enterprise.
Business
Model: AI server/rack assembly and system integration including liquid cooling; Data Center Building Block Solutions® (DCBBS) is the architecture narrative.
Flagships: GPU servers / SuperCluster; DLC / DCBBS; edge/storage base.
Competitiveness: Customization speed + DLC; faster AI rack delivery vs classic OEMs; richer enterprise/sovereign mix lifting GM.
Strategy: Digest >$60B bookings / record backlog; FY27 $65–72B guide requires capacity, GPU allocation, and working-capital discipline in sync.
Entity boundary: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI); manufacturing in the US, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and related sites.
Value chain
Mid/downstream system integration between GPUs and powered racks.
Upstream: NVDA GPUs, networking, cooling (Vertiv, etc.). Downstream: hyperscalers / enterprise / sovereign AI. Customer concentration: release cites hundreds of new enterprise and other customers; top-customer % not named in this print—watch the 10-K. Supply risks: GPU allocation; export-control compliance; inventory/receivables intensity—echoed in #risks.
Customers
| Customer | Concentration/role | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Hyperscaler / 大云客户 | 订单核心（未具名占比） | >$60B Q4 booking 主力叙事 |
| 企业 / 主权 AI | 提升中 | 管理层强调客户多元化 |
| 最大客户占比 | N/A（本 release 未披露） | 跟踪 10-K |
Corporate events
Material events over ~24–36m:
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–2025 | 治理 | 会计/审计 overhang 与内控整改叙事 | 估值折价来源 |
| 2026-07-21 | 经营 | Q4 preliminary：订单 >$60B、GM 预估上修 | 需求确认 |
| 2026-08-11 | 财报 | 正式 Q4/FY26：营收 $11.1B / FY $39.1B；FY27 指引 $65–72B | 从预告进入正式打印 |
| 2026-H2 | 合规 | 出口管制相关交易独立审查（进行中） | 尾部风险 |
Valuation
Frame remains order book / market cap plus conversion & governance discounts: >$60B orders and FY27 $65–72B guide imply a large pipeline, discounted for conversion, GM sustainability, and compliance risk.
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 市值（约） | ~$20–25B 量级 | 随股价波动；相对 >$60B 订单簿仍显著偏低 |
| TTM P/E（示意） | 约 8–12x | FY26 GAAP NI $2.2B / 稀释 EPS $3.26 为锚 |
| P/B（示意） | 约 1.5–2.0x | 股东权益约 $14.5B（2026-06-30） |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 8–12% | 1/PE；高成长硬件折现需叠加转化风险 |
| 订单簿 / 市值 | 约 2.5–3x+ | >$60B 新订单 vs 市值；非收入 |
| FY27 营收指引中值 | ~$68.5B | $65–72B；相对 FY26 $39.1B 约 +75% |
| 股息率 | 0 | 公司不分红；回报看增长与回购/稀释 |
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Price read (~mid-Aug 2026): the market prices “can FY27 hit mid-guide and can Q4-level GM partially persist,” not TTM alone. Dividend yield is 0.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Eight-quarter revenue and gross margin with YoY and QoQ. Calendar labels; 2026-Q2 ≈ Q4 FY26 (ended 2026-06-30).
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 扩张期亚健康 | 盈利跃升；营运资金吞噬全年 OCF |
| Q4 经营现金流 | $747M | 单季转正；CapEx+投资约 $25M |
| FY26 经营现金流 | −$6.81B | 应收/存货大幅扩张；靠融资补血 |
| 现金及等价物 | $7.52B | 2026-06-30 |
| 银行债 + 可转债 | $8.7B | 净负债约 $1.2B；可覆盖但杠杆上升 |
| 存货 | $12.9B | vs 上年 $4.7B；交付/GPU 囤货风险 |
| 流动比率 | 约 3.9x | 流动资产 $27.7B vs 流动负债 $7.2B |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | 正式 10-K 待完成 | 本 release 为 unaudited preliminary；董事会仍在审查出口管制相关交易 |
Q4 OCF turned positive ($747M), but FY26 OCF was −$6.81B on receivables/inventory growth; cash $7.5B vs bank debt + convertibles $8.7B. Formal 10-K / audit opinion pending; this release is explicitly unaudited preliminary estimates.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Q4 / FY26 formal print
Q4 FY26 formal data
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 净销售 | $11.12B | vs Q3 $10.2B；vs Q4'25 $5.76B（约 +93% YoY） |
| GAAP 毛利率 | 17.5% | vs Q3 9.9%；vs Q4'25 9.5% |
| Non-GAAP 毛利率 | 17.6% | SBC 调整约 $9M |
| 净利润 | $1,178M | vs Q3 $483M；vs Q4'25 $195M |
| 稀释 EPS | $1.62 / $1.70 | GAAP / Non-GAAP |
| Q4 经营现金流 | $747M | CapEx+投资约 $25M |
| FY26 新订单 | >$60B | record backlog 进入 FY27 |
| 财季 | Q4 FY2026 | 截至 2026-06-30；正式 release 2026-08-11 |
Segment mix (illustrative)
| Segment | Mix / trait | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| GPU 服务器 | 主导 | NVDA H100/B200 平台 |
| 液冷系统 | 增长 | vs 风冷；ASP 更高 |
| Storage / Edge | 次要 | 非 AI 叙事核心 |
| Hyperscaler | 大客户 | MSFT / AMZN / GOOGL / META |
| Enterprise / Sovereign | 上升 | 主权 AI 项目 booking |
| San Jose 总部 + 全球制造 | — | 美国 + 台湾/马来西亚产能 |
- Revenue $11.1B near the prior $11–12.5B guide low end, but GM 17.5% far above the old 8.2–8.4% band, confirming the preliminary mix story;
- FY26 $39.1B / NI $2.2B validates the scale step-up; Non-GAAP NI ~$2.5B / $3.63 diluted;
- >$60B new orders + record backlog underpin FY27 $65–72B—still delivery-dependent.
Orders & backlog
| Metric | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| New orders (mgmt) | >$60B | Demand intensity |
| Backlog | Record | Multi-quarter coverage |
| Q1 FY27 guide | $14.5–15.5B | Near-term conversion slope |
| FY27 guide | $65–72B | Pipeline made explicit |
Dependencies: NVIDIA GPU allocation, liquid cooling (Vertiv / CLS), own manufacturing capacity.
Products & liquid cooling
GPU servers; DLC / DCBBS; SuperCluster turnkey stacks; edge/storage base. Liquid cooling remains a key SMCI vs CLS battleground.
Competition
Strategy / competition / risk map
| Category | Detail | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| AI 服务器 | GPU 机柜 / DCBBS 液冷交付 | FY27 指引 $65–72B 的执行载体 |
| 客户结构 | 企业与主权 AI 客户增多 | Q4 GM 17.5% 的 mix 解释之一 |
| 订单转化 | >$60B 新订单 + record backlog | 产能/GPU 分配决定斜率 |
| 制造扩产 | 美国 / 台湾 / 荷兰等产能 | 支撑 Q1 $14.5–15.5B 指引 |
| 治理与合规 | 出口管制交易独立审查 | 估值折价与尾部风险 |
| 竞争 | CLS、Dell、HPE、Foxconn | 速度+定制仍是差异化 |
| Axis | SMCI | CLS |
|---|---|---|
| Positioning | Speed + custom AI racks | Large-scale ODM + enterprise |
| Liquid cooling | DLC / DCBBS narrative | Liquid racks ramping |
| Customers | Hyperscaler + enterprise/sovereign | Hyperscaler + Cisco enterprise |
| Governance | Export-control review + history | Relatively clean |
| Valuation | Order book / aggressive guide | Steadier, softer growth narrative |
Peer comparison
| Company | Share / role | GM | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Micro (self) | AI rack speed/custom | Q4 GAAP 17.5% | DLC + DCBBS + enterprise mix | Governance / export-control review |
| Celestica | ODM scale | Adj OM mid-high single digit | Scale + yield + Cisco enterprise | Lower absolute GM narrative |
| Dell / OEM peers | Enterprise AI servers | Server mid-teens | Brand + channel | Slower custom rack cycles |
Management
Founder-CEO Charles Liang remains; CFO bench stabilized after the 2024 audit crisis. Main 24m change is governance/compliance (including an independent export-control transaction review), not day-to-day ops turnover. Stability: operating continuity with transitional compliance risk.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO / President | Charles Liang | 1993 | No change (founder-led) |
| CFO | David Weigand | 2021 | CFO bench stabilized post-2024 audit crisis |
| Chair / CEO | Charles Liang | 1993 | Combined roles; governance discount remains |
Outlook
Company guidance
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 净销售 | $14.5–15.5B | 截至 2026-09-30 |
| Q1 FY27 GAAP 稀释 EPS | $0.89–0.98 | 税率约 20.1%；摊薄股数约 745M |
| Q1 FY27 Non-GAAP 稀释 EPS | $1.01–1.10 | 税率约 20.5%；摊薄股数约 761M |
| FY27 净销售 | $65.0–72.0B | 公司正式指引；承接 record backlog |
| FY26 已实现净销售 | $39.1B | vs FY25 $22.0B（约 +78%） |
Near-term: can Q1 hit $14.5–15.5B; how far GM fades from Q4; whether working capital releases OCF as shipments catch up. Catalysts: formal 10-K, export-control review outcome, next backlog/conversion disclosure.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | FY27 toward $72B; GM holds mid-teens; OCF turns positive | Order-book narrative delivers; re-rating room |
| Base | FY27 $65–68B; GM settles low-teens; conversion tracks guide | Hold for execution proof |
| Bear | Guide cut; GM back to high-single digits; compliance event | Order book ≠ profits; deep drawdown risk |
Positioning frame (research only): AI server satellite; even after the formal print, watch working capital and compliance—avoid one-shot heavy sizing.
Risks
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 订单转化 / 交付延期 | 高 | backlog 跨多季；看 Q1 $14.5–15.5B |
| 营运资金与负 OCF | 高 | FY26 OCF −$6.8B；存货/应收 |
| 毛利率回落 | 中高 | Q4 17.5% 是否可持续 |
| 出口管制 / 治理 overhang | 中高 | 独立审查与历史会计阴影 |
| 客户集中与竞争 | 中 | vs CLS / OEM |
| Risk | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Orders→revenue conversion miss | High | Capacity, GPUs, acceptance |
| GM fade | High | Q4 17.5% may include favorable mix |
| Working capital / negative OCF | High | FY26 −$6.8B OCF |
| Export-control independent review | High | May affect history and outlook |
| Customer concentration / competition | Medium | vs CLS / OEMs |
| Governance overhang | Medium | Trust rebuild still underway |
Tracking
For the next print / 10-K:
- Q1 FY27 revenue in $14.5–15.5B and GM fade vs Q4
- Whether backlog/new orders still support FY27 $65–72B
- OCF improvement (inventory/receivables)
- Export-control review conclusion and audited 10-K opinion
- Enterprise/sovereign mix and Non-GAAP EPS path
Confirm: near-term guide hit, OCF improving, no major compliance hit.
Falsify: guide cut, GM collapse, review escalation or key customer loss.
References
- Super Micro — Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results (2026-08-11) — https://ir.supermicro.com/news/news-details/2026/Supermicro-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
- Super Micro Investor Relations — https://ir.supermicro.com/
- See CLS · NVDA · Vertiv · AVGO
Not investment advice. Audited 10-K figures may differ from this unaudited release; valuation series are illustrative market reads.
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