SNDK.US: FY26 Q4 $8.97B — NAND supercycle & conservative guide

Snapshot

Price (approx.)

USD 280

Mkt cap (approx.)

USD 44.0B

Revenue (approx.)

USD 35.9B

Datacenter (Q ~)

USD 3.0B

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Sandisk FY26 Q4 revenue $8.97B (+51% QoQ / +372% YoY), GM 84.6%, datacenter ~$2.98B. FY $20.25B (+175%). Q1 FY27 $10.3–10.8B below some consensus — the debate is supercycle vs conservative guide. Standalone NAND; do not consolidate WDC HDD.

Business

Model: vertically integrated NAND. Flagships: enterprise SSD/datacenter (bit mix ~38%); Edge; consumer. Edge: node and customer mix shift. Strategy: high-value TLC enterprise, ~$93.9B commitments. Entity: 2025 WDC spin.

Value chain

Mid-stack NAND. Upstream: tools/wafers; downstream: cloud and OEMs. Cloud concentration. Risks: tools, cycle inventory, residual WDC links.

Valuation

Price context ~$280 (extremely cyclical; some tapes printed much higher). Do not treat 84% GM as steady state.

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)

Metric	Value	Note
TTM PE	N/A	未接入具名行情源；TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数
PB	N/A	待最新净资产与市值核验
股息率	N/A	待分红公告 / IR
现价语境	约 280	SNDK · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准

~3y PE / PB / dividend yield / trailing 1Y ann. return. Points without a named market source are null:

Valuation & return · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Financial trend (~24 months)

Last ~8Q revenue and margins with YoY / QoQ. Missing quarters stay null:

Revenue · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Gross margin · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Financial health (§A.7)

Q4 NI $6.90B; FY adj. FCF ~$8.7B (company). Peak-cycle cash is huge; downturns reverse fast.

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)

Item	Value	Note
财务健康总评	稳健偏扩张	以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准
经营现金流	见最新 10-Q	AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲
净负债 / 现金	投资级或净现金	详见 table 与 IR
流动性	充裕	Current ratio / cash & equivalents
审计意见	无保留（常规预期）	以最新 10-K 为准

Operations

Sequential growth ~1/3 volume / 2/3 price. Consumer −32% QoQ. Conservative Q1 guide is the tape.

Key financial points

Key financial points

Item	Value	YoY	Note
Q4 营收	$8.97B	+51% QoQ	+372% YoY
毛利率	84.6%	纪录	价>量
Datacenter	~$2.98B	+103% QoQ	比特 mix ~38%
FY26 营收	$20.25B	+175%	DC 全年 $5.15B
Q1 指引	$10.3–10.8B	低于部分预期	周期信号
长约	~$93.9B	多年	转化跟踪

Competition

Peer strengths/weaknesses; share charts only when a named source exists.

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Peer map

Peer map

Company	Share/role	Margin	Strength	Weakness
SanDisk (self)	NAND pure-play	Cyclical	Focus + brand	CapEx cycle
Micron	DRAM+NAND	Cyclical	HBM/AI	Different mix
Western Digital	Ex-parent HDD	Mid	HDD AI	Not flash

Management

Management (24m)

Management (24m)

Role	Name	Since	24m change
CEO	David Goeckeler	spin era	Post-spin leadership
CFO	See filings	—	Confirm proxy
Chair	Board	—	See proxy

Stability: Standalone management post-spin; 24m organizational boundary still new — moderate-positive stability.

Outlook

Track contract prices, DC mix, Q1 guide variance, share vs MU.

Scenarios

Risks

Tracking list

Verify on next earnings:

1. Q1 FY27 $10.3–10.8B guide (below some consensus)
2. Datacenter revenue / bit mix (~38% in Q4)
3. NAND contract prices vs 84.6% GM fade
4. Conversion of ~$93.9B multi-year commitments
5. Cycle-top signals: inventory and conservative guide

References

1. Sandisk Q4 FY2026 results — https://investor.sandisk.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sandisk-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-2026-financial-results
2. Sandisk IR — https://investor.sandisk.com/
3. Peers — WDC · Micron

Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.