000858.SZ · A-shares
000858.SZ Wuliangye: sell-through restatement and governance discount
Wuliangye restated 2025 revenue ¥40.529B (−54.6%), parent NI ¥8.954B (−71.9%); cash ~¥127B. 2026Q1 parent NI ¥8.063B; H1 guide ¥8.73–9.20B. 8/17 close ¥72.55 / mkt ~¥282B. See Moutai.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/wuliangye-000858-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share (8/17)
- CNY 72.55
- Market cap (approx)
- CNY 281.6B
- 2025 parent NI (restated)
- CNY 9.0B
- H1'26 NI guide midpoint
- CNY 9.0B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is the No. 2 premium strong-aroma baijiu name, anchored on 8th-gen Wuliangye. After switching revenue recognition to terminal sell-through, 2025 revenue ¥40.529B (−54.55%) and parent NI ¥8.954B (−71.89%) — optical collapse, while OCF was still ¥29.706B and cash ~¥127.0B. 2026Q1 revenue ¥22.838B (+33.7%), parent NI ¥8.063B (+82.6%); H1 NI guide ¥8.73–9.20B (+89%–+99%), mostly a restated low base plus peak-season sell-through, with Q2 sequential profit dropping hard.
Close 2026-08-17: ¥72.55, mkt ~¥282B. The tape prices governance discount (chair detention) + true sell-through after the accounting reset. Anchor peer: Moutai. Formal H1'26 revenue was not out at cutoff — use the profit pre-announcement and Q1.
Business
Model: strong-aroma fermentation → aged base liquor → Wuliangye and series via dealers/direct. Profit is premium brand rent; cash-before-delivery.
Flagships:
- 8th-gen Wuliangye (WLY products) — 2025 ¥27.936B (−58.8% restated), GM 89.55%; ~¥1,000 price band, volume-price balance.
- Series (Wuliangchun / Wuliangchun / Jianzhuang etc.) — ¥9.168B (−39.9%), GM 66.10%.
- Younger / occasion SKUs — e.g. World Cup collab (news: >¥1.6B H1'26 sales) as new-user tests, not the P&L core.
Edge: (1) No. 2 premium strong-aroma mindshare; (2) specialty stores + 2,562 brand dealers, cash-before-delivery.
Strategy: execution year, tighter quotas, inventory toward ~1–1.5 months; recognition now tracks sell-through — uglier prints, more verifiable. Q1'26 openings/inlet counts improved (sell-side); Q2 profit warns against annualizing CNY.
Strategy pillars
| Pillar | Detail |
|---|---|
| 主业定位 | 高端浓香第二极；「一核两擎两驱一新」，第八代五粮液为核心大单品 |
| 产量 / 库存 | 2025 酒类销量 11.30 万吨（−30.3%）；成品酒库存 +45.2%——主动去渠道、报表向动销靠拢 |
| 量价平衡 | 第八代坚持千元价格带；批价与配额精细化，渠道库存目标压至 1–1.5 个月 |
| 收入确认 | 2025 年报改为终端动销完成才确认收入；表观腰斩，后续报表更贴近开瓶/动销 |
| 股东回报 | 2025 拟分红 100.07 亿 + 回购 80–100 亿；叠加中期分红兑现三年回报规划 |
Entity boundary: Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. (000858.SZ); parent is the Group. 2025–26: no liquidation/resumption, but material governance events and accounting restatement.
Value chain
Position: midstream branded distiller — premium strong-aroma rent.
| Side | Counterparties | Dependence |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | Grain, packaging, pits, 100kt eco-brew projects | Top-5 suppliers 29.6% of purchases; related 13.4% |
| Downstream | Dealers, stores, Tmall/JD/WeChat, group-buy | Banquet/gifting; batch price forms in wholesale |
Customer structure
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 客户类型 | 经销商为主 + 专卖店/电商/团购直销 | 先款后货 |
| 前五大客户 | 14.55%（58.97 亿） | 2025 年报；关联方占销售 2.06% |
| 经销商 | 五粮液品牌 2562 家；浓香系列 1171 家；合计 3733 | 五粮液品牌经销商净减 90 家 |
| 直销 vs 经销 | 直销 145.12 亿（毛利率 90.4%）；经销 225.92 亿（79.5%） | 重述后直销占比仍高 |
| 片区 | 南部 178.25 亿 / 东部 128.32 亿 / 北部 64.47 亿 | 均为酒类口径，同比腰斩主因确认时点 |
Concentration: 2025 top-5 14.55% (¥5.897B); related 2.06% of sales. Largest customer unnamed.
Supply risks: (1) related-supplier concentration; (2) finished-goods inventory +45% in 2025 as channel stock moved onto the factory — echoed in risks.
Corporate events
The restatement and chair detention dominate 36m — keep them separate from run-rate operations.
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06 | 人事 | 董事会换届：华涛任总经理、章欣任财务总监兼董秘 | 经营层换届，曾从钦仍任董事长 |
| 2026-02-28 | 治理 | 董事长曾从钦留置；股份公司公告立案/留置通知书 | 治理折价；前任李曙光 2025-01 亦被查 |
| 2026-04-30 | 会计 | 年报 + 前期差错更正：2025 营收 405.29 亿（−54.6%）、归母 89.54 亿（−71.9%） | 收入确认改为终端动销；前三季度累计营收下调约 303 亿 |
| 2026-04-30 | 回购 | 推出 80–100 亿回购计划 | 用现金回购对冲信任折价 |
| 2026-04-30 | 财报 | 2026Q1 营收 228.38 亿（+33.7%）、归母 80.63 亿（+82.6%） | 低基数 + 旺季动销；单季利润接近 2025 全年 |
| 2026-06-26 | 人事 | 股东会免去曾从钦董事；选举邓敏为董事长 | 真空期结束，新董事长来自宜宾国资系统 |
| 2026-07-15 | 预告 | 2026H1 归母预告 87.3–92.0 亿（+88.8%–+99.0%） | Q2 环比大幅回落；正式中报截止日前未披露营收 |
Valuation
¥72.55 / ~¥282B (2026-08-17). Do not read 31x on restated ¥8.954B NI — the denominator was crushed by policy. Cleaner: forward earnings (street ~¥16B → ~16–18x) + net cash + buyback/dividend.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 现价 / 市值 | 72.55 元 / 约 2816 亿 | 2026-08-17；股本约 38.82 亿 |
| 静态 P/E（2025 重述） | 约 31x | 口径被洗大澡扭曲，不宜直接横比历史 |
| 前瞻 P/E（示意） | 约 16–18x | 若 2026 归母落在约 160 亿分析师区间 |
| P/B | 约 2.4x | 账面现金约 1270 亿提供底仓 |
| 盈利收益率 | 重述静态约 3.2%；前瞻约 5.5%–6% | 1/PE |
| 股息率 | 年报拟派约 3.6%；含中期或更高 | 拟派 100.07 亿；回购额额外 80–100 亿 |
~3y tape (P/E jumps in 2026Q1 on the restated denominator — an optics effect):
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Eight quarters: 2024 quarters reconstructed from FY original; 2025 quarters are restated official; 2026Q1 is the formal print. 2025 YoY collapse is timing of recognition, not vanished stills. Q1 is the seasonal peak.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Liquor GM 83.75% in 2025 (+1.54ppt); quarterly GM is interpolated around that level.
Financial health
Cash fortress, P&L optics broken. OCF ¥29.7B ≫ restated NI — not a cash collapse.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 现金充裕，报表口径剧变 | 资产负债表仍强；利润表 2025 不可直接外推 |
| 经营现金流 2025 | 297.06 亿（−12.5%） | OCF 远高于重述净利，反映确认时点后移而非现金枯竭 |
| 货币资金 | 1270.14 亿（2025 末） | 约占总资产 67% |
| 有息债 vs 现金 | 净现金 | 白酒龙头典型预收款+存款结构 |
| 流动性 | 先款后货；关注预收款与库存 | |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | 天职国际；年报无持续经营强调 | 同期发布前期差错更正，信息披露争议是治理风险而非偿债风险 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
2025 liquor volume 113.0kt (−30.3%), inventory 47.6kt (+45.2%) — de-stocking from channel onto books. 2026 start: 8th-gen sell-through double-digit, inventory 1–1.5 months (sell-side/news). H1 revenue awaits the interim.
Segments / mix
| Segment | Scale / mix | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| 五粮液产品 | 2025 年 279.36 亿（−58.8%），毛利率 89.55% | 第八代为核心；口径重述是主因 |
| 其他酒 | 91.68 亿（−39.9%），毛利率 66.10% | 五粮春/五粮醇/尖庄等 |
| 2026Q1 | 营收 228.38 亿（+33.7%）；归母 80.63 亿（+82.6%） | 对重述后低基数；旺季动销回暖 |
| 2026H1 预告 | 归母 87.3–92.0 亿（+89%–+99%） | 营收待正式中报；Q2 利润环比显著回落 |
Competition
Peers: Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao 000568, Yanghe 002304.
Strengths: No. 2 premium mindshare; net cash and buybacks; store network. Weaknesses: governance discount; history not comparable post-restatement; more demand-elastic than Flying Fairy.
Punchline: rank intact; 2026 is trust repair + sell-through proof, not a share-gain year.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | Gross margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 五粮液 000858 | 高端浓香第二极 | 酒类 83.8%（2025 重述） | 第八代品牌与渠道；净现金 | 治理事件 + 会计重述信任折价 |
| 贵州茅台 600519 | 超高端酱香锚 | 91%+ | 品牌与配额壁垒 | 批价/直营改革期增速放缓 |
| 泸州老窖 000568 | 高端浓香直接竞品 | 高 | 国窖 1573 | 需求下行弹性大 |
| 洋河股份 002304 | 苏酒 / 次高端+ | 低于茅五 | 省内深度分销 | 全国化与价格带压力 |
Management
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 | 邓敏 | 2026-06 | 接替被留置的曾从钦；2026-02 至 06 董事长真空 |
| 总经理 / 副董事长 | 华涛 | 2025-06 | 换届出任总经理；年报期间曾代行法定代表人 |
| 财务总监 / 董秘 | 章欣 | 2025-06 | 换届新任；主持会计工作（年报签字） |
24m: Jun 2025 Hua Tao GM, Zhang Xin CFO; 2026-02-28 Zeng Congqin detained; 2026-06-26 Deng Min chair. Prior chair Li Shuguang was also investigated in Jan 2025. High transition risk — operations continue, dealer/SASAC confidence must be re-earned.
Outlook
Near-term: official interim revenue, advances, inventory, 8th-gen batch. Medium-term: whether FY26 profit can approach ~¥16B street once the accounting is stable — do not annualize Q1. Baijiu demand still below 2021–23.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Sell-through holds, batch stable, governance quiet | Earnings repair, 18–20x forward |
| Base | Peak seasons work, off-peak soft, buybacks floor | ¥65–90 range |
| Bear | Another disclosure/governance shock or restocking | Cash narrative breaks, wider discount |
Risks
Risks (with severity)
| Risk | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 治理 / 董事长留置余波 | 高 | 连续两任集团董事长被查；新班子执行与经销商信心 |
| 会计口径与信息披露信任 | 高 | 2025 前三季大幅更正；后续同比需始终标注口径 |
| 高端需求与批价 | 中高 | 商务宴请弱、库存若再积压将压制第八代 |
| Q2 环比断崖是否持续 | 中 | H1 预告隐含 Q2 利润远低于 Q1 旺季 |
| 上游原粮 / 包材 / 基酒 | 中 | 前五大供应商占采购 29.6%，关联采购 13.4% |
| 产能项目节奏 | 低 | 10 万吨生态酿酒二期等；需求不足时产能是沉没成本 |
Tracking
- 8th-gen batch price and months of channel inventory
- Official H1'26 revenue, advances, inventory vs guided NI
- Whether post-Q2 profit keeps collapsing sequentially
- Buyback execution (¥8–10B)
- Dealer-policy shocks under the new chair
Confirm: sell-through matches cash, no more restatement ping-pong. Falsify: another large correction or forced loading.
References
- Wuliangye 2025 annual report — https://disc.static.szse.cn/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-30/7b179575-3e07-4607-8d7e-d1bb9c4c8786.PDF
- H1'26 earnings pre-announcement — https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12446580&stockid=000858
- SZSE — https://www.szse.cn/
- CNINFO / SZSE search 000858
- Moutai standard pack
Not investment advice. 2025 quarters are not spliceable onto older quarterlies; valuation series are illustrative.
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