AMZN · US
AMZN.US: Q2 AWS +37% — read ops ex-Anthropic noise
Amazon Q2: net sales $200.6B (+20%), OI $27.5B (+43%); AWS $42.2B (+37%), ARR ~$169B; ads ~$19.81B (+26%). GAAP NI includes ~$53.4B pre-tax Anthropic MTM; CapEx outlook ~$220B; Q3 guide $197–202B. See Microsoft, NVDA.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/amzn-us-research#thesis
Latest print snapshot
- Q2 net sales
- USD 200.6B
- AWS revenue
- USD 42.2B
- AWS growth
- 0
- Op. income
- USD 27.5B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Amazon runs retail + cloud + ads. Formal Q2 2026: net sales $200.6B (+20%), operating income $27.5B (+43%); AWS $42.2B (+37%, fastest in 18 quarters), AWS OI $16.6B, ~$169B ARR; ads ~$19.81B (+26%); NA $116.2B (+16%), International $42.2B (+15%).
Critical caveat: GAAP NI is inflated by an Anthropic mark-to-market ($53.4B pre-tax)—use adjusted EPS ($1.97 cited) for ops. CapEx outlook ~$220B (Jassy); Q3 sales guide $197–202B.
Business
E-commerce fulfillment + AWS + retail media. Flagships: AWS, ads, NA/Intl retail. Strategy: Bedrock; Trainium/Inferentia; heavy AI + logistics CapEx.
Strategy
| Pillar / phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| 0–12m: AWS AI/芯片放量 | KPI: AWS +37% 持续性 · AI/Chips >$25B run-rate |
| 零售效率与广告 | KPI: 配送时效 · 广告 +26% · NA 利润率 |
| CapEx 纪律 | KPI: 年 CapEx ~$220B 叙事 · AWS backlog 兑现 |
Value chain
Mid/downstream platform. Upstream GPUs/custom silicon/power; downstream consumers and enterprises. Supply risks: accelerators/power; labor/trade.
Customers
| Customer | Concentration/role | Note |
|---|---|---|
| AWS 企业 / 云客户 | 分散但大客户重要 | AWS $42.2B / OI $16.6B |
| 零售消费者（Prime） | 超分散 | NA + International |
| 广告主 | 提升中 | 广告约 $19.8B（+26%） |
| 最大客户占比 | N/A（本 release 未具名） | 跟踪 10-K |
Corporate events
Material events over ~24–36m:
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–2026 | 投资 | Anthropic 等 AI 投资公允价值大幅变动 | GAAP NI 噪声；读经营应用调整口径 |
| 2026-07-30 | 财报 | Q2 销售 $200.6B；AWS +37% 至 $42.2B | 云加速验证 |
| 2026 | 指引 | 管理层 CapEx 年展望约 $220B；Q3 销售 $197–202B | 开支与指引辩论 |
Valuation
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 市值（约） | ~$2.5T 量级 | 约 2026-08 |
| GAAP TTM P/E | 失真偏高 | 含 Anthropic 公允价值变动 |
| 调整后 EPS（报道） | 约 $1.97 | 更贴近经营；对街约数 |
| 经营 Forward 口径 | 约 30–35x 量级 | AWS+广告 SOTP 更有意义 |
| P/B（示意） | 约 6–8x | 零售+云混合 |
| 股息率 | 0 | 不分红 |
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Price read: AWS re-acceleration and ads growth, discounted for ~$220B CapEx and GAAP investment noise.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 经营强、GAAP 利润噪声大 | AWS/广告驱动；CapEx 高位；投资公允价值扰动 NI |
| Q2 净销售 | $200.6B | +20% |
| 经营利润 | $27.5B | +43% |
| AWS 收入 / OI | $42.2B / $16.6B | +37%；约 18 季最快；ARR ~$169B |
| 广告（报道） | ~$19.81B | +26% |
| Anthropic 公允价值 | 税前约 $53.4B | 显著抬高 GAAP NI；须剔除读经营 |
| 全年 CapEx 展望 | 约 $220B | Jassy 口径 |
| Q3 销售指引 | $197–202B | 公司指引 |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | 大型美股常规无保留预期 | 以最新 10-Q 为准 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Q2 net sales $200.6B (+20%); OI $27.5B (+43%). AWS $42.2B (+37%), OI $16.6B, ARR ~$169B. Ads ~$19.81B (+26%). NA $116.2B (+16%); International $42.2B (+15%). Anthropic ~$53.4B pre-tax MTM inflates GAAP NI. Q3 guide $197–202B; CapEx outlook ~$220B.
Q2 segments & ads
| Segment | Revenue mix | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| North America | $116.2B / +16% | 零售效率与广告飞轮 |
| International | $42.2B / +15% | 增长改善 |
| AWS | $42.2B / +37% | OI $16.6B；ARR ~$169B；18 季最快 |
| Advertising (reported) | ~$19.81B / +26% | 高毛利；计入零售但独立跟踪 |
Competition
Cloud vs Azure/GCP; retail vs Walmart et al.; ads vs Google/Meta. Strength: AWS re-acceleration + closed-loop ads. Weakness: thin retail margins, CapEx, GAAP noise.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | GM | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AMZN) | Cloud ~31% / retail+ads | ~50% | AWS share + closed-loop ads | Thin retail margins; heavy Capex |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | Azure ~25% | ~69% | Enterprise + Copilot distribution | Less retail media scale |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | GCP ~12% | ~58%+ | Search cash + Cloud acceleration | Smaller cloud share vs AWS |
| Walmart (WMT) | US retail peer | Lower | Stores + growing retail media | No hyperscale cloud profit pool |
Management
Andy Jassy (CEO), Brian Olsavsky (CFO). No major 24m change—stable.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Andy Jassy | 2021-07 | No change |
| CFO | Brian Olsavsky | 2015 | No material disclosed change |
| Chair (Exec) | Jeff Bezos (Exec Chair) | 2021 | No material disclosed change |
Outlook
Near-term Q3 $197–202B and whether AWS holds 30%+. Medium-term: ROI on ~$220B CapEx and FCF path; Anthropic MTM volatility.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | AWS 30%+; ads 20%+; FCF inflection | Upside |
| Base | Three engines steady; CapEx elevated | Hold |
| Bear | AWS slows; CapEx ROI fails | Multiple compression |
Risks
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| AWS 增速回落 / 供给约束 | 高 | 高预期下任何减速敏感 |
| CapEx 高峰压制 FCF | 高 | ~$220B 年开支叙事 |
| GAAP 投资收益噪声误导 | 中 | Anthropic MTM；看经营利润 |
| 零售竞争与监管 | 中 | 反垄断 / 劳动 |
| 指引偏保守引发波动 | 中 | Q3 $197–202B vs 更高街预期 |
| Risk | Level |
|---|---|
| ~$220B CapEx vs FCF | High |
| AWS deceleration | High |
| GAAP investment MTM noise | Medium |
| Retail price war / regulation | Medium |
| Supply / power constraints | Medium |
Tracking
- Q3 sales in $197–202B
- AWS growth and OI
- Ads growth and retail op margins
- CapEx vs ~$220B
- Anthropic-related GAAP NI noise
Confirm: durable AWS re-acceleration + ads. Falsify: cloud slowdown or CapEx without returns.
References
- Amazon Q2 results — https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/
- Amazon IR — https://ir.aboutamazon.com/
- See Microsoft · Alphabet · NVIDIA
Not investment advice.
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