Investor Research

300750.SZ, 002594.SZ, 002074.SZ, 300014.SZ, 300207.SZ · A-shares

China power-battery competitive landscape deep-dive | 2026

2025 installs 769.7GWh with CR2 under 70%; H1’26 CATL ~46%, BYD ~17%. Tier-2 and OEM-captive rise; LFP >80%; ESS/overseas as second curve. See share tables and #references.

Published Updated Open interactive reader

Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/china-power-battery-competition-2026#thesis

Snapshot

2025 installs
769.7 GWh (+40%)
2025 CR2
~65% (<70%)
H1’26 CATL
46.04% (+3ppt)
H1’26 BYD
17.14% (−6ppt)
As of 2026-08-04

Industry competition deep note (not equity §A). Install volumes primarily from China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance via reputable secondary sources; as of ~Aug 2026.

Thesis

China’s power-battery market remains a dual-leader, highly concentrated industry—but the contest has shifted. CR2 fell below 70% (~65%) in 2025 as Tier-2 and OEM-captive makers gained; in H1’26 CATL share rebounded to ~46% while BYD slipped under 20%. The focus moves from volume share alone to profit quality, ESS as a second curve, overseas installs, and solid-state/sodium positioning. LFP holds >80% of installs; NMC shrinks to premium/differentiation.

Upstream materials: Huayou · nonferrous.

Market size & structure

  • 2025 FY: China power-battery installs 769.7 GWh, +40.4% YoY.
  • 2026 H1: 335.6 GWh, +12.0% YoY—normalization after a boom year.
  • Chemistry: 2025 LFP ~81.2% (625.3 GWh); NMC ~18.7%. H1’26 LFP still ~81%.
  • Concentration: 2025 CR265% / CR582% / CR1093%; H1’26 TOP581% / TOP10~94%.

Share evolution

2025 China install share (Alliance via secondary)

2025 China install share (Alliance via secondary)
RankCompanyGWhShareNote
1宁德时代 CATL333.5743.42%份额−1.67ppt；绝对增量仍最大
2比亚迪 BYD165.7721.58%份额−3.17ppt；插混结构拖累装机
3中创新航 CALB53.61~7%二线领头羊
4国轩高科 Gotion43.445.65%份额增速居前
5亿纬锂能 EVE31.61~4.1%动力+储能双轮
CR集中度市场 769.7 GWh (+40.4%)CR2≈65% / CR5≈82% / CR10≈93%双王合计跌破70%
As of 2026-08-04

2026 H1 install share (Alliance via secondary)

2026 H1 install share (Alliance via secondary)
RankCompanyGWhShareYoY
1宁德时代154.2546.04%+2.99ppt YoY
2比亚迪57.4217.14%−6.42ppt YoY
3国轩高科20.756.19%+1.01ppt；超中创新航
4中创新航20.716.18%−0.33ppt
5亿纬锂能16.85.01%+0.93ppt
6瑞浦兰钧11.113.32%+1.11ppt（增速靠前）
—市场合计335.6+12% YoYTOP5≈80.6%；TOP10≈93.9%
As of 2026-08-04

2025 dual-leader share fell as followers grew faster (CATL still added ~70 GWh). BYD share hit by PHEV mix (lower kWh/vehicle) and limited third-party sales. H1’26: CATL +2.99ppt to 46%; BYD −6.42ppt to 17%; Gotion overtakes CALB for #3.

Tiers & business models

Competitive tiers

Competitive tiers
TierPlayersShare bandEdge
第一梯队宁德时代、比亚迪~63–65%（2025）；H1'26 CR2≈63%规模/客户/技术/成本；宁德外供主导，比亚迪垂直一体化
第二梯队（新一线）国轩、中创新航、亿纬各约5–7%车企二供三供+细分场景；向百GWh冲击
挑战者/成长瑞浦兰钧、欣旺达、正力新能、蜂巢等约2–3.5%特定车企绑定、海外、圆柱/快充等差异化
车企系/新进吉曜通行、因湃、楚能、远航锦锂等快速爬升OEM 自研自供+集团订单；改写竞争维度
As of 2026-08-04

CATL = broad third-party supply; BYD = vertical integration; Tier-2 = dual-sourcing + ESS; OEM-captive (Geely’s Jiyue/Yaoning combine, GAC’s Yinpao) change the game.

Chemistry & products

LFP is the volume battlefield; NMC is premium/differentiated. Fast-charge, large cylindrical, and semi-solid bridges are Tier-2 entry wedges. Margin = utilization × cell ASP × Li₂CO₃/cathode costs.

OEM dual-sourcing & captive

OEMs (Li Auto, XPeng, Leapmotor, Aion, etc.) multi-source to cut CATL concentration and cost—structural window for Tier-2. Captive/JV batteries (Jiyue Tongxing ~15 GWh in 2025; Yinpao into top 15) raise a new competitive dimension.

Overseas & ESS

As domestic install growth slows, exports/overseas installs and ESS cells become the second curve. Some names (e.g. SVOLT narrative) show soft domestic share but strong overseas shipment growth—split China installs vs global shipments when scoring competitors.

Tech positioning

Near term: LFP cost curve + fast charge. Medium term: solid-state / sodium / recycling. Standards and 2027-ish sodium roadmaps are options on valuation, not yet rewriting 2026–27 install tables.

Equity map

Name Role Watch
CATL Global leader Share vs price/capex; ESS & overseas margins
BYD Vertically integrated PHEV mix; third-party supply; Na-ion
Gotion Tier-2 riser OEM wins; ESS; utilization
EVE Auto + ESS + cylindrical ESS orders; cylindrical ramp
Sunwoda Consumer→auto Share climb vs profitability
CALB (03931.HK) Tier-2 swing Anchor OEM stickiness
Materials Cathode/Ni-Co-Li Huayou

Outlook

Track monthly Alliance rankings, cell ASPs, lithium carbonate, OEM awards, ESS tender prices, and export data. 2026 question: who becomes the next near-100 GWh challenger, and can CATL defend profits while share stabilizes?

Scenarios

Scenario Trigger Implication
Re-concentration CATL tech/cost gap widens CR2 up; Tier-2 multiples compress
Base divergence Multi-sourcing + ESS/overseas CATL #1 stable; Tier-2 winners consolidate
Captive expansion OEM batteries scale Third-party ceiling down
Tech shock Solid-state/Na early Re-rate tech-rich leaders

Risks

References

  1. 2025 installs/share (Alliance via media) — https://www.iautodaily.com/news/review/2025donglidianchizhuangjiliangningdeshidaibiyadishizhanlyudi/
  2. 2025 deep data read — https://www.163.com/dy/article/KNM2L62G052784A8.html
  3. Dual-leader <70% mechanism — https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260205A05ZNS00
  4. 2026 H1 rankings — https://www.163.com/dy/article/L3GK61P90541B741.html
  5. H1 TOP share/concentration — https://www.ja750.com/news/20260721/093035278459743528218256.shtml
  6. June/H1 Alliance coverage — https://www.huiidea.com/news/12328.html
  7. LFP share / production — https://news.eccn.com/news_2026071612004868.htm
  8. Q1’26 share deep-dive (CPCA-linked; differ from Alliance) — https://evchuhai.com/market/catl-market-share-q1-2026
  9. On-site: Huayou · nonferrous

Not investment advice. Defer to Alliance releases and company filings.