CU, AL, 601899.SH, 3993.HK · Commodities · A-shares
Nonferrous metals industry deep dive · 2026 H2
Structural bull with divergence: copper/aluminum benefit from tight supply and electrification; lithium/cobalt move toward balance. Focus on self-sufficiency and volume. See copper brief.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/nonferrous-metals-h2-2026#macro
Key snapshot
- Copper 2026 deficit (conservative)
- ~0.83 Mt
- Copper mid-cycle range
- 12–15k USD/t
- Aluminum mid-cycle
- ~3,300 USD/t
- Sector stance
- Selective OW
Data as of 2026-07 · Sources: company filings / earnings previews, broker strategy notes, SMM, industry research, HKEX annual reports
Thesis: The sector exits a broad-based rally and enters a new cycle of tight balance plus metal-by-metal divergence. Copper and aluminum benefit from rigid supply and electrification demand, with higher mid-cycle prices; lithium and cobalt shift from surplus toward balance; precious and strategic minor metals stay resilient. The investment spine is resource self-sufficiency + volume growth + cost advantage.
1. Macro: three forces reshaping pricing power
Supply rigidity
Declining grades, chronic under-investment, and long project lead times; resource nationalism (DRC cobalt quotas, Indonesia nickel quotas) compresses supply elasticity.
Copper mine supply in 2026 may be flat to down; China’s aluminum capacity ceiling plus power constraints lock the supply lid.
Structural new demand
Grid upgrades, EVs, solar/wind, and storage keep pulling; AI compute amplifies copper/aluminum use via data centers and power infrastructure.
Traditional property-linked aluminum/copper demand softens, but cannot offset electrification and high-end manufacturing growth.
Liquidity and geopolitics
A still-accommodative global liquidity backdrop supports commodities’ financial bid; geopolitical shocks lift supply-chain risk premia and reinforce strategic-metal status.
Volatility rises, but long-run downside is capped by supply constraints.
2. Metal-by-metal supply, demand, and prices
Shortage intensity / price conviction ranking: copper ＞ aluminum ＞ cobalt/tungsten and minors ＞ lithium ＞ nickel (mostly cost-floor support)
| Metal | Key supply constraint | Demand engine | 2026 setup | Mid-cycle price view | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | CapEx shortfall, grade decline, project delays | Grid / AI compute / EVs | Deficit ~0.83 Mt (conservative) | 12,000–15,000 USD/t | Overweight |
| Aluminum | China capacity ceiling + power/carbon constraints | Solar frames, NEV, Al-for-Cu | Low inventories + high margins persist | Mid ~3,300 USD/t | Overweight |
| Lithium | CapEx peak behind; growth decelerating | Storage + EVs | Surplus → tight balance; price repair | Mid-cycle higher, high elasticity | Neutral → overweight |
| Cobalt | DRC export quotas | Power/storage batteries, alloys | Sharp supply cut; shortage | Sticky highs, upside-skewed | Overweight (elastic) |
| Gold | Limited mine growth | Haven + central-bank buying + monetary bid | High cycle continues | Trend constructive | Hedge sleeve |
| Rare earths / tungsten | Domestic supply reform + export controls | Magnets, defense, high-end tooling | Strategic premium rising | Elevated cycle sustained | Thematic |
Copper: the new-era pricing anchor
Near-zero supply growth vs ~+2.5% demand; deficits clear via higher prices. Sell-side high-end calls cluster around 13,000–15,000 USD/t. AI compute, US grid CapEx, and China new-energy exports form structural demand support. See copper brief.
Aluminum: quality dividend asset
Domestic smelting capacity sits near the policy ceiling; green-power aluminum and integrated cost advantage decide profit allocation. Solar, NEVs, and grid offset property drag; cost-deflation gains still flow through.
3. Value-chain positioning and stock-selection frame
Value order (resources ＞ smelting ＞ fabrication)
- Resource self-sufficiency: grade and reserves set long-cycle margins
- Volume visibility: incremental projects that can be verified in 2–3 years
- Cost-curve position: left-side producers earn across price regimes
- Metal mix: copper–gold dual drive; copper–cobalt new-energy linkage dampens volatility
- Valuation fit: whether earnings growth matches the multiple
Key risks
- Macro: Fed policy whipsaw, global recession scare
- Geopolitics: host-country policy, labor, and export-quota shocks
- Projects: delayed ramp, CapEx overruns
- Prices: sharp corrections from highs (limited structural downside, large swings)
- Valuation: growth premium then missed volume guidance = double hit
4. China major miners: earnings snapshot
2026H1 figures are preview midpoints/approximations; 2025 full-year from annual reports. Unit: RMB 100 million.
Source: company H1 2026 earnings previews (SMM compilation, 2026-07)
| Company | Ticker | Core metals | 2025 NP attributable | 2026H1 preview | YoY | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zijin Mining | 601899 | Cu+Au+Li | ~518 | ~391 | +68% | Global resources + volume ramp |
| CMOC | 603993 | Cu+Co+Au | 203 | 155–165 | +79%~90% | Cu/Co volumes + Au consolidation |
| Chalco | 601600 | Full Al chain | — | 112–122 | +58%~73% | Capacity ceiling + cost cuts |
| Jiangxi Copper | 600362 | Cu smelting/fab | 71.3 | 75.5–85 | +81%~104% | Copper beta + restructuring |
| Yunnan Aluminum | 000807 | Hydro aluminum | — | 75–78 | +171%~182% | Green power cost + Al price |
| Shandong Gold | 600547 | Gold | 47.4 | — | 2025 +61% | Gold price + capacity release |
5. Flagship investment assessments
1. Zijin Mining (601899.SH / 2899.HK) — highest-conviction global diversified miner
Investment case: Top-tier endowment (gold, copper, lithium reserves among global leaders) and a deep low-cost moat. 2026–2028 volume ramps at Julong copper, Kamoa, and lithium (Manono, etc.) give growth-stock attributes. Broker NP forecasts cluster around RMB 82.1 / 104.6 / 126.1 billion for 2026–2028.
Risks: Overseas geopolitics and FX; valuation already embeds some growth; lithium ramp timing. Fit as the nonferrous core holding.
Positioning: core · defensive growth
2. CMOC (603993.SH) — copper–cobalt–gold triple drive, highest elasticity
Investment case: 2025 mined copper 741 kt (global top 10) with world-leading cobalt; DRC quotas reinforce the cobalt price story. Brazilian gold consolidation opens a second growth leg. 2026H1 NP guide +~80%–90%; street 2026–2028 NP ~RMB 30.3 / 39.0 / 41.9 billion.
Risks: High Congo operating/policy concentration; violent cobalt swings; M&A integration and CapEx load. Fit for aggressive capital betting on copper–cobalt coincidence.
Positioning: satellite add · aggressive
3. Chalco (601600) & Yunnan Aluminum (000807) — dividend assets under the smelting ceiling
Chalco: Global aluminum major with full-chain integration. 2026H1 NP guide +58%–73% (RMB 11.2–12.2B) shows operating discipline and cost control. Capacity ceiling supports earnings resilience at a still-reasonable multiple—fit for value/dividend sleeves.
Yunnan Aluminum: Hydro-power cost edge. 2026H1 NP guide ~+171%–182% (RMB 7.5–7.8B); volume × price × cost triple lever makes it one of the cleanest aluminum-cycle proxies.
4. Jiangxi Copper (600362.SH) — smelting leader, strongest copper price beta
China’s largest integrated copper name; cathode output >2.3 Mt; mined concentrate copper rose to ~270 kt in 2025 (+35%). In a rising copper cycle, smelting + fabrication margins expand sharply. Self-sufficiency still trails Zijin/CMOC—better as a trading sleeve on the copper trend.
5. Shandong Gold (600547) & Zhongjin Gold (600489) — precious-metal haven and monetary bid
Shandong Gold 2025 mined gold 48.9 t (+5.9%), attributable NP RMB 4.74B (+60.6%), attributable gold resources ~1,979 t. Zhongjin Gold 2026H1 NP guide +52%–71%. Low correlation to industrial metals makes them useful macro hedges and portfolio stabilizers.
6. Investment scorecard
Dimensions (1–5 each, max 30): resource barrier, volume growth, cost advantage, metal-cycle fit, valuation attractiveness, risk control
| Company | Resource | Growth | Cost | Cycle | Valuation | Risk | Total | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zijin Mining | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 28 | Core holding |
| CMOC | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 25 | Aggressive add |
| Chalco | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | Dividend sleeve |
| Yunnan Aluminum | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | Aluminum preferred |
| Jiangxi Copper | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | Copper beta |
| Shandong Gold | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | Hedge satellite |
7. Portfolio suggestions
Defensive
Zijin Mining 50% + Chalco 25% + Shandong Gold 25%
Prioritize resource certainty, aluminum dividends, and gold hedge—drawdown control first.
Balanced
Zijin Mining 40% + CMOC 25% + Yunnan Al 20% + Jiangxi Copper 15%
Covers copper–gold–lithium–cobalt–aluminum; blends growth and cycle beta.
Aggressive
CMOC 35% + Zijin Mining 30% + Yunnan Al 20% + minor-metals theme 15%
Bets on copper–cobalt shortage and aluminum high margins; higher volatility—needs strict stop discipline.
8. Summary
The 2026 nonferrous story is not “everything rallies together,” but continued re-pricing of metals with rigid supply and real new demand (copper, aluminum, cobalt, strategic minors). Among China majors, Zijin Mining is the best mix of conviction and value via global resources and volume growth; CMOC offers more elasticity; aluminum shares the capacity-ceiling dividend; Jiangxi Copper trades copper beta; gold names stabilize the book.