601600.SH, 2600.HK · A-shares · Hong Kong
601600.SH / 2600.HK Chalco: steady primary Al profits
Chalco 2025 revenue ¥241.125B (+1.69%), parent NI ¥12.674B (+2.25%), pretax profit ~¥25.84B. A-share ~¥9.6 / mkt ~¥164.2B. Al price and power cost drive profits; capacity caps favor steady cash over hypergrowth. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/chalco-601600-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share (~7/31)
- CNY 9.57
- Market cap (approx)
- CNY 164.2B
- 2025 parent NI
- CNY 12.7B
- 2025 pretax profit
- CNY 25.8B
Thesis
Chalco (601600.SH / 2600.HK) is China's aluminum champion. 2025 revenue ¥241.125B (+1.69%), parent NI ¥12.674B (+2.25%). A-share ~¥9.6 / mkt ~¥164.2B.
Capacity caps favor steady cash and Al-price beta. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
Business
Model: Integrated alumina–primary Al–fabrication. Under capacity caps, earn Al-vs-cost spread and steady cash.
Flagships: primary aluminum, alumina, fabricated products.
Competitiveness: integration dampens purchased-alumina swings; capacity swaps and cost-curve position set medium-term share.
Strategy (12–24m): cost-curve and green power / capacity swaps; near-term steady growth, torque from Al mid-cycle.
Value chain
Position: midstream smelting with upstream alumina.
| Side | Counterparties | Dependence |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | Bauxite, power | Ore supply and power tariffs |
| Downstream | Construction, transport, packaging, new energy | Property and manufacturing demand |
Supply-chain risks: (1) power costs and dual energy controls; (2) bauxite import/supply shocks — echoed in Risks.
Price & valuation
~7/31 A-share ~¥9.57. Multiple tracks Al-price expectations.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Revenue and GM track Al and power gradually; mild seasonality.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue 2025 | ¥241.125B | +1.69% | Steady |
| Parent NI 2025 | ¥12.674B | +2.25% | Modest growth |
| Pretax profit | ~¥25.84B | — | Al price/cost |
| Chain | Alumina–primary Al | — | Integrated |
| Key drivers | Al / power price | — | Earnings beta |
Competition
Peers: private primary-Al cost-curve rivals (e.g. Weiqiao system — no dedicated pack here); on-site nonferrous contrasts Zijin, JXCC, CMOC.
Strengths: integration and SOE resource access; stickier share under capacity caps. Weaknesses: limited volume upside; power spikes compress NI faster than low-cost private peers.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | GM / margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中国铝业 601600 (self) | 国内铝业龙头 | ~14–15% | 氧化铝—电解铝一体化；产能天花板下成本曲线 | 产量弹性有限；电价敏感 |
| 紫金矿业 601899 | 有色矿端对照 | 矿端更高 | 多金属全球化 | 非铝主业 |
| 江西铜业 600362 | 有色冶炼对照（铜） | 冶炼偏低 | 铜冶炼规模 | 铝暴露弱 |
| 洛阳钼业 603993 | 有色矿端对照 | 矿端更高 | 铜钴弹性 | 非铝产业链 |
Management
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 / Chair | 董建雄 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以最新年报为准） |
| 总裁 / President | 朱润洲 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动 |
| 财务总监 / CFO | 葛晓磊 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以最新年报为准） |
24m changes: No material disclosed core-officer turnover (per latest annual).
Stability: Central-SOE governance stable; Al and power prices drive NI, not succession.
Outlook
Power cost and Al mid-cycle set profits; capacity swaps and cost curve position drive medium-term competitiveness.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Al up; power controlled | NI upgrades |
| Base | Al range-bound; steady costs | Cyclical / yield hold |
| Bear | Al down + power up | Margin squeeze |