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000630.SZ · A-shares

000630.SZ Tongling Nonferrous: Cu smelting scale + TC/RC beta

Tongling Nonferrous 2025 revenue ¥172.726B (+18.7%), parent NI ¥2.415B (−14.0%), adj. NI ¥3.461B (+31.4%). Large smelting/trading scale; Cu and TC/RC beta. See JXCC.

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KPIs

A-share (approx)
CNY 5.5
Market cap (approx)
CNY 74.0B
2025 revenue
CNY 172.7B
2025 parent NI
CNY 2.4B
As of 2026-09-25

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Tongling Nonferrous Major domestic Cu smelter. 2025 revenue and adj. NI improved; parent NI fell on tax items. Thesis is Cu/TC-RC beta.

Business

Model: Integrated copper mining–smelting–processing–trading; large revenue base, profits mainly from TC/RC, captive mines, and fabrication spreads.

Flagships: (1) cathode copper; (2) copper fabrication; (3) gold by-products.

Competitiveness: (1) smelting scale and Anhui copper cluster; (2) mine+smelter hedge vs concentrate swings.

Strategy (12–24m): expand and cut costs; earnings still tied to Cu/TC-RC — prefer adj. NI over tax-noisy parent NI.

Strategy pillars

Strategy pillars
PillarDetail
主业定位铜采选—冶炼—加工—贸易
产能扩产与降本
拳头阴极铜；铜加工；黄金副产
财务读法盯扣非与加工费，而非单季归母
As of 2026-09-25

Entity boundary: 000630.SZ Tongling Nonferrous copper smelting platform. No material liquidation/resumption-type events.

Value chain

Position: mid-stack smelting with some upstream mines.

Side Counterparties Dependence
Upstream Cu concentrate, energy TC/RC and power
Downstream Cable, appliances, new energy Domestic manufacturing demand

Customer structure

Customer structure
ItemValueNote
客户类型电缆 / 家电 / 新能源下游制造
客户集中度N/A（未具名）—
上游精矿 + 能源TC/RC
As of 2026-09-25

Customer concentration: not named; cable/appliance/new-energy downstream. Upstream concentrate and energy set TC/RC and costs.

Supply-chain risks: (1) concentrate supply and TC/RC cycle; (2) energy/HSE and working-capital drag — echoed in Risks.

Price & valuation

Prefer adj. NI and copper scenarios. Parent-NI PE can look rich (~30x) when tax items distort; adj. lens is cleaner.

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
MetricValueNote
P/E（归母）约 30x市值约 740 亿 / 归母 24.15 亿；受所得税扰动抬升
P/E（扣非）约 21x扣非 34.61 亿更贴近主业
P/B约 1.5–2.0x冶炼平台示意
盈利收益率约 3%–5%视归母/扣非
现价读法A 股约 5.5 元铜价/加工费周期 beta
As of 2026-09-25

~3y valuation / return series (illustrative public-market; div yield and trailing ann. return approximate):

Valuation & returns · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Illustrative public-market quarter-ends; div yield and trailing ann. return approximate — terminals prevail · As of 2026-09-25

Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Quarterly close reconstruction (illustrative, split-adjusted approx.) · As of 2026-09-25

Financial trend (~24m)

Last 8Q revenue and gross margin with YoY/QoQ.

Revenue · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Company filings; some quarters synthesized · As of 2026-09-25

Gross margin · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Company disclosures; some quarters synthesized · As of 2026-09-25

Financial health (§A.7)

Neutral (NI optics noise) — revenue up, adj. NI improved; reconcile inventory/receivables and OCF.

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
ItemValueNote
财务健康总评中性（利润口径扰动）营收高增、扣非改善，归母受所得税扰动
经营现金流N/A（本包未单列）冶炼贸易需核对营运资金；以年报为准
有息债 vs 现金示意：营运资本占用以合并报表为准
流动性示意：正常—
审计意见无保留（常规预期）以年报为准
As of 2026-09-25

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Reconstructed from public filings (illustrative; attributable NI) · As of 2026-09-25

Operations

Revenue / segment mix

Revenue / segment mix
SegmentScale/mixNote
铜产品主体收入阴极铜/加工
黄金等副产次要利润缓冲
化工及其他较小非核心
2025 四季营收逐季抬升Q4 峰值
As of 2026-09-25

Competition

Peers JXCC, Zijin. Pros: scale. Cons: thinner vs miners.

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer map

Peer map
CompanyRoleMarginStrengthWeakness
铜陵有色冶炼规模方低个位数 GM规模/贸易网络利润率薄
江西铜业冶炼+矿山低一体化利润率仍薄
紫金矿业矿端龙头高成本曲线不同 beta
As of 2026-09-25

Management

Management (24m)

Management (24m)
RoleNameSince24m change
董事长/法人丁士启公开披露以年报为准
总经理文燕公开披露平稳
董秘姚兵公开披露平稳
As of 2026-09-25

Stability: steady under SOE governance.

Outlook

Commodity demand: Copper demand supported by grid/manufacturing; smelting thickness tracks TC/RC.

Track Cu, TC/RC, cathode volumes, adj. vs parent NI.

Scenarios

Scenario Trigger Implication
Bull Cu high + TC/RC up Adj. NI up
Base Choppy Cu Cyclical sleeve
Bear Cu/TC-RC down NI compression

Risks

Risks (with severity)

Risks (with severity)
RiskLevelNote
铜价与 TC/RC 下行高配置逻辑核心
所得税扰动归母中高表观 PE 失真
营运资本 / 贸易敞口中—
能耗环保中供应链回扣
相对江铜的规模与 ROE 差距中竞争格局
As of 2026-09-25

Tracking

Next interim / annual check:

  1. Adj. vs parent NI (tax noise fading?)
  2. Cathode volumes and TC/RC
  3. OCF and working capital
  4. GM under copper scenarios
  5. Share/cost gap vs JXCC

Confirm: adj. NI up, TC/RC recovers, OCF improves.
Falsify: copper down + TC/RC pressure, parent NI stays noisy.

References

  1. Tongling 2025 annual summary — http://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-20/1225119696.PDF
  2. cninfo 000630.SZ — https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/stock?stockCode=000630&orgId=gssz0000630
  3. Nonferrous deep-dive · JXCC

Not investment advice. Valuation series are illustrative public-market estimates.

Disclaimer: For research information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

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