AAPL · US
AAPL.US: Q3 FY26 formal print — iPhone +22%, watch tariff refunds
Apple Q3 FY26: revenue $109.4B (+16%), GM 50.1% (incl. ~2ppt tariff refunds), EPS $2.02 (+29%). iPhone $54.25B (+22%); Services $30.74B (+12%); growth in all geos. See MSFT.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/aapl-us-research#thesis
Latest print snapshot
- Q3 revenue
- USD 109.4B
- Gross margin
- 0.5
- Diluted EPS
- USD 2.02
- iPhone revenue
- USD 54.3B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Apple is in a Services-compounding + AI/feature upgrade cycle. Formal Q3 FY26 (ended 2026-06-27): revenue $109.4B (+16%), GM 50.1% (incl. 2ppt tariff refunds), diluted EPS $2.02 (+29%) ($0.11 from tariff refunds). iPhone $54.25B (+22%); Services $30.74B (+12%); double-digit growth in iPhone/Mac/Services and growth in all geographies.
Read-through: growth quality is strong, but GM/EPS include tariff-refund one-offs—do not linearly extrapolate 50.1% GM.
Business
Hardware acquires users; Services/accessories lift ARPU. Flagships: iPhone, Services, Mac/other. Strategy: Apple Intelligence drives upgrades rather than a standalone Copilot-like subscription.
Strategy
| Pillar / phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| 0–12m: iPhone 周期与 AI 功能 | KPI: iPhone 营收 · 大中华区 · 新品周期 |
| Services 利润池 | KPI: Services 增速/毛利 · 安装基数 |
| 关税与供应链韧性 | KPI: GM 剔退税后 · 产能地理分散 |
Value chain
Brand OEM + services platform; manufacturing outsourced. Upstream foundry/EMS; downstream retail/carriers. Supply risks: advanced nodes and geopolitics/tariffs; component cycles.
Customers
| Customer | Concentration/role | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 消费者（直营+渠道） | 超分散 | iPhone 安装基数创新高叙事 |
| Services 订阅用户 | 分散且高粘性 | Services $30.74B（+12%） |
| 企业 / 教育 | 中 | Mac / iPad 补充 |
| 最大客户占比 | N/A（通常很低） | 渠道商集中度见 10-K |
Corporate events
Material events over ~24–36m:
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-WWDC | 产品 | WWDC26：Siri AI 等软件更新 | 服务与换机叙事 |
| 2026-Q3 | 财报 | Q3 FY26：营收 $109.4B（+16%）；iPhone +22% | 硬件周期回暖 |
| 2026-Q3 | 一次性 | 关税退税抬升 GM ~2ppt、EPS ~$0.11 | 读利润率需剔除非经常 |
Valuation
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 市值（约） | ~$5T 量级 | 约 2026-08 |
| TTM P/E（示意） | 约 30–34x | 含关税退税对 EPS 的约 $0.11 贡献需留意 |
| Forward P/E（示意） | 约 28–31x | Services 溢价仍在 |
| P/B（示意） | 很高 | 回购压低账面权益 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 3% | 1/PE |
| 股息率 | 约 0.4–0.5% | 以回购为主 |
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Price read: upgrade cycle + Services compounding, discounted for GM normalization after tariff refunds fade.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 极强 | 高毛利、强 FCF、净现金；留意关税退税一次性 |
| Q3 FY26 营收 | $109.4B | +16% |
| 毛利率 | 50.1% | 含约 2ppt 关税退税 |
| 稀释 EPS | $2.02 | +29%；约 $0.11 来自关税退税 |
| iPhone | $54.25B | +22% |
| Services | $30.74B | +12% |
| 净现金 / 回购 | 强净现金 + 大规模回购 | 以最新 10-Q 为准 |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | 大型美股常规无保留预期 | 以最新 10-Q 为准 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Q3 FY26: $109.4B revenue (+16%); GM 50.1% (incl. ~2ppt tariff refunds); diluted EPS $2.02 (+29%, ~$0.11 tariff refunds). iPhone $54.25B (+22%); Services $30.74B (+12%). Double-digit growth in iPhone/Mac/Services; all geos positive.
Q3 FY26 product mix
| Segment | Revenue mix | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone | $54.25B / +22% | 换机周期主力 |
| Services | $30.74B / +12% | 高毛利复利 |
| Mac / iPad / Wearables | 双位数（Mac 等） | 官方：iPhone/Mac/Services 双位数 |
| 公司毛利率 | 50.1% | 含约 2ppt 关税退税 |
Competition
Phones vs Samsung/Huawei; ecosystem vs Google. Strength: closed loop and Services profit pool. Weakness: AI differentiation still proving out; China share pressure; tariff policy noise.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | GM | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple (AAPL) | Premium smartphone leader | ~46–47% | Services flywheel + installed base | Hardware saturation; China share pressure |
| Samsung | Android handset volume | Lower hw | Vertical components + foldables | Weaker services profit pool |
| Huawei | Greater China challenger | n/a | Domestic share recovery / Harmony | Limited global services reach |
| Google (GOOGL) | Android / services peer | ~58%+ | Ads + Cloud AI stack | Less hardware ASP control |
Management
Tim Cook (CEO); CFO Kevan Parekh (after Luca Maestri transition). Stable transition; succession and AI execution remain watches.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Tim Cook | 2011-08 | No change |
| CFO | Kevan Parekh | 2025-01 | Appointed Jan 2025 (succeeded Luca Maestri) |
| COO | Jeff Williams | 2015 | No material disclosed change |
Outlook
Near-term holiday iPhone + Services durability. Medium-term GM normalization after tariff refunds and quantified Apple Intelligence upgrade contribution.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | AI upgrades surprise; China stabilizes | Upside |
| Base | Services double-digit; iPhone mid/high-single to low-double | Core hold |
| Bear | China slide / regulation / refund fade shocks estimates | Compression |
Risks
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone 换机周期回落 | 高 | 硬件占比仍高 |
| 大中华区需求波动 | 中高 | 地缘与竞争 |
| 关税/贸易政策反复 | 中 | 本季退税不可外推 |
| Services 监管（反垄断/佣金） | 中 | App Store |
| AI 功能落地不及预期 | 中 | 换机催化减弱 |
| Risk | Level |
|---|---|
| Greater China demand/regulation | High |
| GM/EPS normalize after tariff refunds | Medium |
| AI upgrade cycle fails | Medium |
| Supply-chain geopolitics | Medium |
| App Store regulation | Medium |
Tracking
- Next-quarter revenue/GM (tariff-refund fade)
- iPhone and Services growth
- Geo trends, especially Greater China
- Buybacks and net cash
- Apple Intelligence feature rollout and upgrade data
Confirm: hardware + Services dual drive. Falsify: China stall or one-off margin fade exceeds expectations.
References
- Apple Q3 FY26 results — https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/
- Apple IR — https://investor.apple.com/
- See MSFT · AMD · CPU industry
Not investment advice.
Comments
Sign in to comment