ASML · US
ASML.US: Q2'26 update — EUV monopoly & advanced capacity super-cycle
ASML posted Q2 2026 total net sales of €9.3B, net income €2.9B, and 54.0% GM. System sales €6.6B (EUV €3.8B incl. 1 High-NA; non-EUV €2.8B); Logic 51% / Memory 49%. Q3 guide €11.0–12.0B; FY26 sales raised to €43–45B. ~65 Low-NA EUV shipments planned for 2026; +30% capacity planned for 2027. EUV is irreplaceable for advanced Logic/Memory expansion; China export controls are a tail risk. See TSMC, Micron, NVDA.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/asml-us-research#thesis
Q2 2026 snapshot
- Q2 net sales
- EUR 9.3B
- Net income
- EUR 2.9B
- Gross margin
- 0.5
- EUV system sales
- EUR 3.8B
Q3 / FY26 guidance
- Q3 sales midpoint
- EUR 11.5B
- Q3 GM guide
- 1
- FY26 sales midpoint
- EUR 44.0B
- 2026 EUV shipments
- 65
Thesis
ASML is the world's sole production-capable EUV lithography supplier—without ASML EUV, there is no sub-N7 advanced node production at TSMC, Intel, or Samsung. Q2 2026 total net sales €9.3B, net income €2.9B, GM 54.0%; system sales €6.6B with EUV at €3.8B (incl. first High-NA revenue recognition).
Core investment logic:
- EUV is irreplaceable — Low-NA EUV is required for N7→N3 mass production; High-NA EUV is the next gen for N2 and below; Nikon/Canon have no EUV capability, no second source near-term;
- AI compute → advanced node CapEx → ASML orders — TSMC N3/N2 ramp, Micron HBM expansion, Intel 18A catch-up all convert directly to EUV equipment demand;
- High order visibility — FY26 sales guide raised to €43–45B; ~65 Low-NA EUV shipments planned for 2026; +30% capacity planned for 2027.
Logic 51% / Memory 49% customer mix reflects dual AI Logic and HBM Memory drivers—a structural feature distinguishing ASML from traditional semi-equipment cycles.
Business
Model: Lithography systems (EUV/DUV) plus installed-base services.
Flagships: Low-NA EUV; High-NA EUV; DUV + services.
Competitiveness: De-facto EUV monopoly; deep process lock-in with leading fabs.
Strategy: High-NA commercialization into 2027+; China DUV controls reshape order mix.
Value chain
Upstream critical equipment for advanced nodes.
Upstream: optics/source/precision supply chain. Downstream: TSMC, Intel, Samsung, memory IDMs. Risks: China export controls; TSMC CapEx swings.
Valuation
ASML has long traded in an "EUV monopoly premium minus China export-control discount" frame. Post Q2, the FY26 guide raise confirms the AI CapEx cycle is still in an upswing, but valuation already prices some EUV shipment upside.
Valuation frame
| Metric | Status | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 销售增长 | 上修 | FY26 指引 €43–45B；Q3 €11–12B |
| 毛利率 | 稳健 | Q2 54.0%；FY26 54–56% |
| EUV 垄断 | 无可替代 | Low-NA / High-NA 独家；无第二供应商 |
| 订单可见性 | 强 | Logic + Memory CapEx 周期支撑 |
| 中国出口管制 | 尾部风险 | 成熟 DUV 受限；EUV 本不可售华 |
| 产能扩张 | +30%（2027） | EUV + DUV immersion 同步扩产 |
Versus TSMC: ASML is upstream—every node TSMC adds requires more ASML EUV. Together they form a dual monopoly in the AI capacity expansion chain.
Versus Applied Materials: AMAT dominates deposition/etch/CMP non-lithography segments, complementary to ASML—not competitive. EUV is ASML's exclusive "switch."
Financial trend (~24 months)
Eight-quarter revenue and gross margin with YoY and QoQ. Semi/AI hardware seasonality is secondary to supply, ASP, and order timing.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Q2 2026 operations
Q2 P&L and structure
| Item | Q2 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 总净销售额 | €9.3B | — |
| 净利润 | €2.9B | — |
| 毛利率 | 54.0% | — |
| 系统销售 | €6.6B | EUV + 非 EUV |
| EUV 系统 | €3.8B | 含 1 台 High-NA |
| 非 EUV 系统 | €2.8B | DUV immersion 等 |
| Logic 占比 | 51% | TSMC / Intel / Samsung |
| Memory 占比 | 49% | SK hynix / Samsung / Micron |
Business structure
| Segment | Scale / mix | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| EUV 系统 | €3.8B | Q2 系统销售；含 1 High-NA |
| 非 EUV 系统 | €2.8B | DUV immersion / 成熟制程 |
| Logic 客户 | 51% | TSMC 最大客户 |
| Memory 客户 | 49% | HBM 扩产驱动 |
| Installed Base 管理 | — | 服务 + 升级 recurring 收入 |
| High-NA EUV | 早期 | Intel / TSMC 验证阶段 |
Takeaways:
- EUV €3.8B includes 1 High-NA EUV revenue recognition—High-NA moving from R&D validation to early commercialization;
- Memory 49% mix rising reflects HBM/DDR5 expansion cycle—Micron, SK hynix, Samsung all ordering;
- Logic 51% led by TSMC as largest customer—N3 capacity expansion + early N2 deployment are core drivers;
- GM 54.0% steady; FY26 guide 54–56% band.
EUV & High-NA
ASML's product line forms the widest moat in semi equipment:
| Product line | Q2 scale | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Low-NA EUV (NXE) | €3.8B core | N7→N3 mass prod required; ~65 units/yr |
| High-NA EUV (EXE) | First revenue recognized | N2 and below; Intel/TSMC validating |
| DUV immersion | €2.8B non-EUV | Mature/advanced DUV; +30% 2027 capacity |
| Installed Base | Service recurring | Upgrade + maintenance stable revenue |
High-NA EUV is the 2026–2028 core narrative—TSMC N2 and Intel 18A both depend on High-NA for finer linewidths. First High-NA Q2 revenue is a milestone, but mass-production scale awaits 2027+ validation.
Demand & order visibility
How the AI compute cycle flows through ASML:
- Logic CapEx — TSMC FY26 CapEx $60–64B raise → N3/N2 EUV demand; Intel 18A Foundry catch-up → additional EUV orders;
- Memory CapEx — HBM expansion (Micron, SK hynix) → Memory 49% mix; DDR5 capacity upgrades → DUV immersion demand;
- AI indirect pull — NVIDIA GPU shipments → TSMC advanced node utilization → ASML EUV order visibility.
ASML's backlog and order book provide 12–18 months forward visibility—among the highest order certainty in semi equipment.
Competition
Strategy / demand / risk map
| Category | Detail | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| EUV 垄断 | Low-NA 量产；High-NA 验证交付 | 先进 Logic/Memory 扩产必经 ASML |
| 需求驱动 | AI 算力 → 先进节点 CapEx | TSMC / Samsung / Intel 订单可见性高 |
| Memory 复苏 | HBM / DDR5 扩产 | Memory 49% mix 反映周期修复 |
| 出口管制 | 成熟 DUV 对华限制收紧 | 短期订单波动；长期份额再分配 |
| 产能 | 2027 EUV/DUV +30% | 缓解设备交付瓶颈 |
| 竞争 | Nikon/Canon 无 EUV | 无实质替代；定价权稳固 |
China export controls are ASML's clearest policy risk:
- EUV never exported to China (Wassenaar multilateral controls);
- Mature DUV (1980Di etc.) restricted since 2023, tightened further 2024–2026;
- Chinese domestic customers (SMIC etc.) shifting to mature nodes + non-ASML sources—short-term order volatility but limited long-term impact (EUV is ASML's profit pool).
Nikon/Canon compete in DUV but have no EUV capability—ASML's EUV monopoly will not change in the foreseeable future.
Peer comparison
| Company | Share / role | GM | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML (self) | EUV monopoly | ~54% | EUV / High-NA moat | China DUV policy |
| Applied Materials | Deposition / etch | ~47% | Broad WFE portfolio | No EUV |
| Lam Research | Etch / deposition | ~47% | Memory CapEx beta | No lithography |
| Nikon / Canon | DUV niche | Lower | Legacy litho | No EUV capability |
Management
CEO Christophe Fouquet appointed Apr 2024 (succeeded Peter Wennink); CFO Roger Dassen retained. Stability: transition complete, ops continuous — watch High-NA execution.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO / President | Christophe Fouquet | 2024-04 | Appointed Apr 2024 (succeeded Peter Wennink) |
| CFO | Roger Dassen | 2018 | No change |
| CTO / Technology | Martin van den Brink (advisor transition) | — | Long-time CTO transitioned; tech bench intact |
Outlook
Company guide · Q3 / FY26
| Item | Guide | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 销售额 | €11.0–12.0B | 中值 €11.5B；季节性 + 交付节奏 |
| Q3 毛利率 | 55–57% | High-NA mix 改善 |
| FY26 销售额 | €43–45B | 较此前指引上修 |
| FY26 毛利率 | 54–56% | — |
| 2026 Low-NA EUV 出货 | ~65 台 | 产能 2027 +30% |
Framework:
- Q3 €11.0–12.0B is a seasonally strong quarter—equipment delivery cadence drives quarterly volatility;
- FY26 €43–45B raise reflects dual Logic + Memory CapEx strength—AI compute demand not yet peaking;
- ~65 Low-NA EUV 2026 shipments is a hard delivery target—any delay propagates to TSMC/Intel node ramps;
- +30% 2027 capacity (EUV + DUV immersion) is key to easing industry equipment bottlenecks.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | FY26 >€45B; High-NA early mass prod; TSMC N2 accelerates | EUV monopoly premium expands |
| Base | FY26 €44B; ~65 EUV on-time delivery | Steady growth; core allocation |
| Bear | AI CapEx slows; China controls tighten; High-NA delays | Order growth slows; -10–15% valuation |
Positioning frame (research only): core semi-equipment allocation; EUV monopoly provides downside protection, China policy is a known tail risk.