COST · US
COST.US: Q4 FY26 net sales $93.87B — EPS $6.75 & 89.8% renewal
Costco printed Q4 FY26 on 2026-09-24 (16 weeks ended 8/30): net sales $93.873B (+11.2%), total revenue $95.723B, operating income $3.801B, NI $2.998B / diluted EPS $6.75 (incl. $0.15/sh IEEPA refunds). Comps +9.4% (+6.7% ex-gas/FX); worldwide renewal 89.8%. See WMT, AMZN.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/cost-us-research#thesis
Latest print snapshot
- Q4 net sales
- USD 93.9B
- Comps
- 0.1
- Diluted EPS
- USD 6.75
- Worldwide renewal
- 0.9
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Costco = membership warehouse with renewal and traffic as the anchor. Formal Q4 FY26 (16 weeks ended 2026-08-30, printed 2026-09-24): net sales $93.873B (+11.2%), membership fees $1.850B (+7.3%), total revenue $95.723B; operating income $3.801B, net income $2.998B, diluted EPS $6.75 (incl. $0.15/sh IEEPA refunds; ex-refund NI +12.3%, EPS +12.4%). Comps +9.4% (+6.7% ex-gas/FX), traffic +3.3%, ticket +5.9%; digitally-enabled comps +19.5%. Paid members 84.1M (+3.8%), worldwide renewal 89.8% (US/Canada 92.3%), Executive 42.3M. FY26 net sales $297.247B (+10.1%), NI $9.226B / EPS $20.76, OCF $15.825B. Read headline sales net of gas and the one-off refund; the core is adjusted comps, renewal and Executive mix. See WMT, AMZN, TJX, TGT.
Business
Limited-SKU warehouses + eComm + fuel. Flagships: membership fees, warehouse net sales, digital. Strategy: Executive penetration (incl. China launch), digital traffic, disciplined new clubs.
Strategy
| Pillar / phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| 0–12m: 续费与客流 | KPI: paid memberships · renewal ~90% · traffic/ticket |
| Executive 升级 | KPI: Executive 付费会员数（41.2M）· 会员费收入 |
| 数字与开店 | KPI: digital comps · 新仓节奏 · 国际（含中国 Executive） |
Value chain
Downstream paid members; upstream branded/private-label supply. Highly fragmented customers. Supply risks: tariffs/merchandise cost; fuel distorting reported comps; labor and site selection.
Customers
| Customer | Concentration/role | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 付费会员（家庭） | 超分散；付费会员 +4.1% | 全球续费率约 89.7% |
| Executive 会员 | 41.2M（+9.6%） | 会员费与客单杠杆 |
| 企业会员（部分） | 中 | 仓储 B2B 补充 |
| 最大客户占比 | N/A（极低） | 会员制 B2C；供应商见 10-K |
Corporate events
Material events over ~24–36m:
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 定价 | 美加会员费上调（贡献会员费增速约 1/4） | 读会员费增速需拆分提价 vs 量 |
| 2026-Q3 | 产品 | 中国市场推出 Executive 会员 | 国际会员结构升级 |
| 2026-09-02 | 销售公告 | 8 月净销售 $23.70B（+9.9%） | Q4/FY 销售预告，非完整利润表 |
| 2026-09-24 | 财报 | Q4 FY26：总营收 $95.723B；EPS $6.75；续费率 89.8% | 最新正式打印（含 IEEPA 退税 $0.15/股） |
Valuation
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 估值数据状态 | N/A | 未接入具名市场数据源；不填造 PE/PB/股息率/回报序列 |
| 经营快照 | Q4 净销售 $93.873B（+11.2%）；EPS $6.75 | Costco 2026-09-24 8-K；含非经常退税 $0.15/股 |
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Price read: market prices ~90% renewal + comps durability—low tolerance for renewal/traffic misses No named market-data source is connected, so PE/PB/yield/return and price points remain N/A/null and no valuation inference is made.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Fiscal year ends ~late August and Q4 is 16 weeks. Revenue / margin / profit charts keep only the official 2026-09-24 Q4 points (net sales $93.873B, OM ~4.0%, NI $2.998B); no unverified quarters are stitched in:
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operating margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 极强 | FY OCF $15.825B 覆盖 CapEx $6.435B + 股息 $2.458B + 回购 $0.848B；净现金 |
| Q4 FY26 总营收 | $95.723B | 净销售 $93.873B（+11.2%）+ 会员费 $1.850B（+7.3%） |
| 经营利润 / 净利润 | OI $3.801B；NI $2.998B / EPS $6.75 | 含 IEEPA 退税净利 $0.15/股；剔后 NI +12.3%、EPS +12.4% |
| 经营现金流（OCF） | FY26 $15.825B | 来源 2026-09-24 8-K 现金流量表；上年 $13.335B |
| 有息债 vs 现金 | 现金 $20.207B；有息债 $6.162B | 一年内到期 $2.248B + 长期 $3.914B（2026-08-30） |
| 流动性 | 流动资产 $46.582B / 流动负债 $43.952B | 存货 $19.324B；短期投资 $1.094B |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | 大型美股常规无保留预期 | Q4/FY 新闻稿未经审核；以即将刊发的 10-K 为准 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Official Q4 print: net sales $93.873B (+11.2%), membership $1.850B, total revenue $95.723B; comps +9.4% (adjusted +6.7%); digitally-enabled comps +19.5%. Paid members 84.1M (+3.8%), worldwide renewal 89.8%, Executive 42.3M, 939 warehouses. The August $23.70B (+9.9%) sales release remains a monthly cross-check—do not extrapolate profits from it.
Q4 FY26 operating snapshot
| Segment | Scale / growth | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 净销售 / 总营收 | $93.873B / $95.723B | 16 周截至 2026-08-30；净销售 +11.2%（上年 $84.432B） |
| 同店 / 量价 | 同店 +9.4%（剔汽油/FX +6.7%） | 客流 +3.3%；客单 +5.9%（调整客单 +3.3%） |
| 地域同店 | 美 +10.7% / 加 +5.0% / 其他国际 +7.0% | 调整：美 +7.2% / 加 +4.6% / 其他 +6.2% |
| 数字同店 | +19.5%（剔 FX +19.8%） | 站/App 流量 +30%；当日达第三方渠道扩张 |
| 会员 | 付费 84.1M（+3.8%）；Executive 42.3M | 全球续费 89.8%；美加 92.3%；会员费 $1.850B（+7.3%） |
| 仓库 | 全球 939（美加 647+115） | Q4 +11；FY27 补充材料估计 967 |
Competition
Peers: WMT / Sam's, AMZN, and planned HD / TJX / TGT. Strength: renewal and fee visibility. Weakness: rich multiple, slow unit growth, gas-distorted headline comps.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costco (COST) | 会员仓储龙头 | OM ~4% | 续费率与客流锚；限 SKU 低价 | 开店慢；估值贵 |
| Walmart (WMT) | 价值零售+山姆 | OM ~4% | 密度与电商/广告 | 利润池更分散 |
| Amazon (AMZN) | 电商平台 | 零售薄利 | 履约与广告 | 非会员仓模型 |
| Target (TGT) | 中产可选 | 更高可选 | 门店体验 | K 型消费敏感 |
| BJ's / Sam's | 会员仓竞品 | 类似 | 区域密度 | 品牌与续费弱于 COST |
Management
Ron Vachris (CEO); Gary Millerchip (CFO). No further material disclosed C-suite changes in ~24m—stable.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Ron Vachris | 2024-01 | 接棒后进入稳定运营期 |
| CFO | Gary Millerchip | 2024 | 近 24 个月无重大再变动披露 |
| Chairman | Hamilton James / Board | — | 以最新代理声明为准 |
Outlook
Near-term: hold 89.8% worldwide / 92.3% US-Canada renewal; keep Q1 adjusted comps in the mid/high-single digits. Medium-term: Executive mix 75.6%, international (incl. China) upgrades, digitally-enabled comps +19.5%; FY27 warehouse path ~967. Do not annualize the one-off refund.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Renewal steady; adj comps high-single+; multiple holds | Upside |
| Base | Membership/comps solid; multiple sideways | Core hold |
| Bear | Renewal slip or comps stall | Multiple crush |
Risks
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 估值透支续费率/客流 | 高 | 容错低；未接行情源前不填造倍数 |
| 汽油与通胀扭曲 reported comps | 中 | Q4 reported +9.4% vs 调整 +6.7% |
| 关税退税不可持续 | 中 | Q4 已入账 IEEPA 退税 $0.15/股；公司称后续拟再投入会员价值 |
| 开店/劳动力约束 | 中 | FY27 补充材料估计 967 仓；增长仍靠同店与会员 |
| 竞争（WMT/Sam's/电商） | 中 | 份额战或价格投资 |
| Risk | Level |
|---|---|
| Rich multiple vs renewal | High |
| Gas distorts reported comps | Medium |
| Tariffs / merchandise cost | Medium |
| Unit-growth / labor constraints | Medium |
| WMT / eComm competition | Medium |
Tracking
- Q1 FY27 comps reported vs adjusted (Q4 +9.4% / +6.7%)
- Worldwide renewal 89.8% and US/Canada 92.3%; paid members 84.1M
- Executive 42.3M / 75.6% sales mix and membership income +7.3%
- $0.15/sh IEEPA refund fade; future refunds recycled into member value
- FY27 warehouses ~967 vs FY OCF $15.8B / CapEx $6.4B
Confirm: renewal + adjusted-comp durability. Falsify: renewal or membership growth slips materially.
References
- Costco Q4 / FY26 operating results (2026-09-24) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/24/3368754/0/en/costco-wholesale-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2026-operating-results.html
- Costco IR / 8-K Exhibit 99.1–99.2 — https://investor.costco.com/
- Costco August sales (2026-09-02) — https://investor.costco.com/news/news-details/2026/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Reports-August-Sales-Results/default.aspx
- See WMT · AMZN · HD · TJX · TGT
Not investment advice.
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